Do I ship it?

GamesIdlerIdler + Martial Arts

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Martial-Arts Idler?

Idler + Martial Arts

Only 16 developers shipped a Martial-Arts Idler in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, xiuzhen idle, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 14 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.8k, ×16 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $410k, ×662 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 14 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 15.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 14 announced, ×1.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Idler + Martial Arts
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $119 → $34k → $48k → $4.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Idler + Martial Arts: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $2.5k (exactly $2,507)
Median $9.8k (exactly $9,815)
Top 25% $48k (exactly $48,252)
Top 5% $416k (exactly $415,646)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 35
Announced 14
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Idler
effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI
Martial Arts
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Idler
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 4,404 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.6k, median $9.8k, 1 in 4 over $48k, 1 in 20 over $410k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.6k. 5 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 14 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Idler with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds10 devs · median $36k · 10 announced
  2. + FarmingStrong odds33 devs · median $5.9k · 25 announced
  3. + Hack and SlashFair32 devs · median $6.4k · 50 announced
  4. + DrivingFair16 devs · median $5.5k · 18 announced
  5. + LootFair181 devs · median $4.5k · 256 announced
  6. + FPSFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  7. + Turn-Based CombatFair52 devs · median $4.0k · 41 announced
  8. + Turn-Based StrategyFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  9. + Dynamic NarrationFair16 devs · median $3.0k · 17 announced
  10. + Dark FantasyFair83 devs · median $2.9k · 128 announced
  11. + CapitalismFair205 devs · median $2.9k · 260 announced
  12. + SwordplayFair9 devs · median $2.7k · 4 announced

All 177 pairs on the Idler page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
xiuzhen idle $5.99 2,313 79% 69k $416k (exactly $415,646) 游戏养家工作室
欺神弄鬼 · EA $9.99 802 91% 24k $240k (exactly $240,359) 猫台班子工作室 Cat Caboodle
懒人修仙传2 · EA older $7.99 873 71% 26k $209k (exactly $209,258) 托更的修罗
Desktop Raid $8.99 672 76% 20k $181k (exactly $181,238) Lee_Studio
XiuzhenWorld older $12.99 436 75% 13k $170k (exactly $169,909) Noforgetit
大宋英雄传(SongHeros) · EA $9.99 161 79% 4.8k $48k (exactly $48,252) LazyManGameStudio
Reborn - Season 1: New Life older $9.99 112 80% 3.4k $34k (exactly $33,566) Woundead
Fighting Robots older $2.99 228 54% 6.8k $20k (exactly $20,452) HFM Games
少侠的江湖 older $3.99 164 69% 4.9k $20k (exactly $19,631) ChenGame
长路江湖 - 九州群芳 $4.99 127 57% 3.8k $19k (exactly $19,012) SourceIn Games
Immortal IDLE · EA $5.99 78 64% 2.3k $14k (exactly $14,017) 伯乐Couple
Songs of Yummy $3.99 98 74% 2.9k $12k (exactly $11,731) DreamStep, FUTU Studio
Idle Xanxia · EA $3.99 82 81% 2.5k $9.8k (exactly $9,815) Cezae
鸿运修仙传 $5.99 34 76% 1.0k $6.1k (exactly $6,110) 玉米工作室
武道残编 $3.99 37 59% 1.1k $4.4k (exactly $4,429) 武道

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.