Do I ship it?

Games › Idler › Idler + Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic Idler?

Idler + Magic

Of 111 developers who shipped a Magic Idler in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 191 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.8k, ×7.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $290k, ×616 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 191 games are announced against 77 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.9 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 191 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Idler + Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 111
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.2k → $1.4k → $4.6k → $3.6k → $8.4k → $11k → $2.7k (still earning) → $3.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Idler + Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 111
Bottom 30% $1.1k (exactly $1,078)
Median $3.8k (exactly $3,774)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $22,264)
Top 5% $293k (exactly $292,507)
Developers, 2 yr 111
Released games 233
Announced 191
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 115% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Idler
effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI
Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Idler; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Incremental, RPG, Simulation
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 22,596 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $3.8k, 1 in 4 over $22k, 1 in 20 over $290k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 7 in 10 of the 47 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 191 games are announced against 77 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Idler with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds10 devs · median $36k · 10 announced
  2. + FarmingStrong odds33 devs · median $5.9k · 25 announced
  3. + Hack and SlashFair32 devs · median $6.4k · 50 announced
  4. + DrivingFair16 devs · median $5.5k · 18 announced
  5. + LootFair181 devs · median $4.5k · 256 announced
  6. + FPSFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  7. + Turn-Based CombatFair52 devs · median $4.0k · 41 announced
  8. + Turn-Based StrategyFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  9. + Dynamic NarrationFair16 devs · median $3.0k · 17 announced
  10. + Dark FantasyFair83 devs · median $2.9k · 128 announced
  11. + CapitalismFair205 devs · median $2.9k · 260 announced
  12. + SwordplayFair9 devs · median $2.7k · 4 announced

All 177 pairs on the Idler page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Melvor Idle 2021 · $4.4M Lessaria: Fantasy Kingdom Sim 2025 · $2.2M 再刷一把 PlayAgain 2022 · $1.2M Tower Wizard 2025 · $788k Orb of Creation 2026 · $779k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Melvor Idle older $9.99 14,630 90% 439k $4.4M (exactly $4,384,611) Games by Malcs
Lessaria: Fantasy Kingdom Sim $24.90 2,938 77% 88k $2.2M (exactly $2,194,686) Rockbee Team
再刷一把 PlayAgain older $8.99 4,416 67% 132k $1.2M (exactly $1,190,995) 滑稽工作室
Tower Wizard $2.99 8,787 96% 264k $788k (exactly $788,194) Barribob
Orb of Creation $11.99 2,167 84% 65k $779k (exactly $779,470) MarpleGames
Cauldron $14.99 1,678 92% 50k $755k (exactly $754,597) SleepyDad Games
Ithya: Magic Studies $10.99 2,103 97% 63k $693k (exactly $693,359) BlueTurtle
Legends of Dragaea: Idle Dungeons $9.99 976 86% 29k $293k (exactly $292,507) Blast Programming
Master Healer Kale with useless party $4.99 1,879 95% 56k $281k (exactly $281,286) Evrac Studio
Nomad Idle $9.99 852 64% 26k $255k (exactly $255,344) The Fox Knocks
Desktop Raid $8.99 672 76% 20k $181k (exactly $181,238) Lee_Studio
Loot Tycoon · EA $6.99 544 71% 16k $114k (exactly $114,077) Parallel Portal

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.