Do I ship it?

GamesIdlerIdler + Lovecraftian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Lovecraftian Idler?

Idler + Lovecraftian

Only 14 developers shipped a Lovecraftian Idler in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Gamblers Table, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 23 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.7k, ×14 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $610k, ×1305 the market median. Revenue is up 460% on the market; 23 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 14.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 460% on the market, 23 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Idler + Lovecraftian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.2k → $88k → $1.7k → $6.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Idler + Lovecraftian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $1.7k (exactly $1,679)
Median $6.7k (exactly $6,746)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $18,263)
Top 5% $620k (exactly $619,664)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 27
Announced 23
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 460% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Idler
effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI
Lovecraftian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Idler; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Incremental, Arcade
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Dark, Pixel Graphics, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 4,185 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.7k, median $6.7k, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $610k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.7k. 7 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 23 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Idler with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds10 devs · median $36k · 10 announced
  2. + FarmingStrong odds33 devs · median $5.9k · 25 announced
  3. + Hack and SlashFair32 devs · median $6.4k · 50 announced
  4. + DrivingFair16 devs · median $5.5k · 18 announced
  5. + LootFair181 devs · median $4.5k · 256 announced
  6. + FPSFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  7. + Turn-Based CombatFair52 devs · median $4.0k · 41 announced
  8. + Turn-Based StrategyFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  9. + Dynamic NarrationFair16 devs · median $3.0k · 17 announced
  10. + Dark FantasyFair83 devs · median $2.9k · 128 announced
  11. + CapitalismFair205 devs · median $2.9k · 260 announced
  12. + SwordplayFair9 devs · median $2.7k · 4 announced

All 177 pairs on the Idler page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Gamblers Table $6.99 2,955 74% 89k $620k (exactly $619,664) greenpixels, Bossforge
I'm on Observation Duty 7 $11.99 426 93% 13k $153k (exactly $153,232) Notovia, Dreamloop Games
Fishing The Abyss $6.99 421 95% 13k $88k (exactly $88,284) umaaaaaa studio
Family curse older $6.99 222 90% 6.7k $47k (exactly $46,553) Stork Game
I'a I'a Cofflhu Fhtagnyaa older $4.99 295 83% 8.9k $44k (exactly $44,162) lamb of game
SmashCore $4.99 122 94% 3.7k $18k (exactly $18,263) Braian
Cult of the Yellow King · EA $3.99 123 79% 3.7k $15k (exactly $14,723) Metaphor Games, Newmind Interactive
Petunia's Purgatory $6.99 69 98% 2.1k $14k (exactly $14,469) Dead Possum Games
World of One older $3.99 63 66% 1.9k $7.5k (exactly $7,541) Grimwood Team
Hell Cleaners · EA $14.99 15 60% 450 $6.7k (exactly $6,746) WFP Entertainment
Kibble Cats $4.99 38 89% 1.1k $5.7k (exactly $5,689) Vozmog
Mist $5.99 12 75% 360 $2.2k (exactly $2,156) Euphoria Games
Gummy Bear Idle: No Job, Just Jelly♥. $13.99 4 25% 120 $1.7k (exactly $1,679) WeissGarden, Plumko, Atlas, The Thinker… (WeissGarden, Plumko, Atlas, The Thinker Cat)

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.