Do I ship it?

GamesHuntingHunting + Simulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Simulation Hunting game?

Hunting + Simulation

Of 76 developers who shipped a Simulation Hunting game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 128 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.7k, ×9.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $920k, ×1481 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 128 games are announced against 41 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 128 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Hunting + Simulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 76
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.0k → $6.7k → $3.4k → $3.6k → $29k → $7.6k → $3.8k (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Hunting + Simulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 76
Bottom 30% $898 (exactly $898)
Median $5.7k (exactly $5,689)
Top 25% $37k (exactly $36,875)
Top 5% $930k (exactly $929,824)
Developers, 2 yr 76
Released games 225
Announced 128
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Hunting
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Hunting, Simulation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Open World, Survival
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 24,782 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $5.7k, 1 in 4 over $36k, 1 in 20 over $920k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 6 in 10 of the 42 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 128 games are announced against 41 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Hunting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds19 devs · median $33k · 29 announced
  2. + Base BuildingPoor odds24 devs · median $29k · 70 announced
  3. + Co-opPoor odds30 devs · median $22k · 58 announced
  4. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds19 devs · median $22k · 29 announced
  5. + Online Co-OpPoor odds31 devs · median $18k · 56 announced
  6. + AgriculturePoor odds14 devs · median $15k · 20 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds37 devs · median $12k · 77 announced
  8. + MagicPoor odds10 devs · median $9.0k · 20 announced
  9. + BuildingPoor odds37 devs · median $4.8k · 79 announced
  10. + CraftingPoor odds50 devs · median $4.8k · 116 announced
  11. + RoguelikePoor odds11 devs · median $4.8k · 11 announced
  12. + RoguelitePoor odds11 devs · median $4.8k · 15 announced

All 72 pairs on the Hunting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
theHunter: Call of the Wild™ older $19.99 170,472 89% 5.1M $102M (exactly $102,232,058) Expansive Worlds
The Isle · EA older $19.99 111,397 80% 3.3M $67M (exactly $66,804,781) Afterthought LLC
Ranch Simulator: Build, Hunt, Farm older $24.99 40,862 79% 1.2M $31M (exactly $30,634,241) Toxic Dog
WolfQuest: Anniversary Edition $29.99 11,511 97% 345k $10M (exactly $10,356,447) eduweb
Stranded: Alien Dawn older $34.99 9,715 84% 291k $10M (exactly $10,197,836) Haemimont Games
Night of the Dead older $29.99 10,380 77% 311k $9.3M (exactly $9,338,886) Jackto Studios
Way of the Hunter older $29.99 8,528 81% 256k $7.7M (exactly $7,672,642) Nine Rocks Games
DYSMANTLE older $19.99 11,022 91% 331k $6.6M (exactly $6,609,893) 10tons Ltd
Call of the Wild: The Angler™ older $29.99 6,122 63% 184k $5.5M (exactly $5,507,963) Expansive Worlds
Animalia Survival · EA older $19.99 2,823 64% 85k $1.7M (exactly $1,692,953) High Brazil Studio
Way of the Hunter 2 · EA $34.99 1,534 73% 46k $1.6M (exactly $1,610,240) Nine Rocks Games
Survivalist: Invisible Strain $11.99 4,014 87% 120k $1.4M (exactly $1,443,836) Bob
WolfQuest: Classic $29.99 1,401 90% 42k $1.3M (exactly $1,260,480) eduweb
Multiverse Loot Hunter $11.99 2,585 80% 78k $930k (exactly $929,824) 游戏养家工作室
Card Survival: Fantasy Forest · EA $21.99 1,135 76% 34k $749k (exactly $748,760) WinterSpring Games
Alaska Gold Fever $16.99 959 79% 29k $489k (exactly $488,802) Baked Games
BULT: Hunting simulator · EA $9.99 869 87% 26k $260k (exactly $260,439) Nordrise
Arctic Motel Simulator $17.99 465 88% 14k $251k (exactly $250,960) One Slice of Pizza Games
The Axis Unseen $24.99 309 75% 9.3k $232k (exactly $231,657) Just Purkey Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.