Do I ship it?

GamesHuntingHunting + Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic Hunting game?

Hunting + Magic

Only 10 developers shipped a Magic Hunting game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Quinfall, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.0k, ×14 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.6M, ×5762 the market median. Revenue is up 8830% on the market; 20 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 14.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 8830% on the market, 20 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Hunting + Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Hunting + Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,349)
Median $9.0k (exactly $8,996)
Top 25% $67k (exactly $67,104)
Top 5% $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 26
Announced 20
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 8825% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Hunting
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Hunting
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 52% positive over 12,807 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.4k, median $9.0k, 1 in 4 over $67k, 1 in 20 over $3.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.4k. All of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 20 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Hunting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds19 devs · median $33k · 29 announced
  2. + Base BuildingPoor odds24 devs · median $29k · 70 announced
  3. + Co-opPoor odds30 devs · median $22k · 58 announced
  4. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds19 devs · median $22k · 29 announced
  5. + Online Co-OpPoor odds31 devs · median $18k · 56 announced
  6. + AgriculturePoor odds14 devs · median $15k · 20 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds37 devs · median $12k · 77 announced
  8. + SimulationPoor odds76 devs · median $5.7k · 128 announced
  9. + BuildingPoor odds37 devs · median $4.8k · 79 announced
  10. + CraftingPoor odds50 devs · median $4.8k · 116 announced
  11. + RoguelikePoor odds11 devs · median $4.8k · 11 announced
  12. + RoguelitePoor odds11 devs · median $4.8k · 15 announced

All 72 pairs on the Hunting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Quinfall $9.99 12,073 50% 362k $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278) Vawraek Technology Inc.
DYSPLACED · EA $24.99 296 87% 8.9k $222k (exactly $221,911) 10tons Ltd
The Vale: Shadow of the Crown older $19.99 326 97% 9.8k $196k (exactly $195,502) Falling Squirrel, Creative Bytes Studios
Legends of Wasteland $6.99 320 62% 9.6k $67k (exactly $67,104) 清友工作室
DragonRoad $19.98 82 91% 2.5k $49k (exactly $49,151) XuJie
Fallen Angel: Hell Survival $19.99 15 86% 450 $9.0k (exactly $8,996) Strongfinger
BACK TO THE EGG! Tower Defense older $9.99 21 61% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) JaudaLabs
4 Kingdoms Supremacy · EA older $9.99 17 76% 510 $5.1k (exactly $5,095) PiggyNose Games
ShuffleHunt $9.99 16 93% 480 $4.8k (exactly $4,795) PURESO_STUDIO
Age Of Omens · EA older $15.99 8 75% 240 $3.8k (exactly $3,838) Groundbreak Games
Ghost Hunters $14.99 3 33% 90 $1.3k (exactly $1,349) 8floor ltd
Hunter's Journey: Nightmare Hunting Collector's Edition $15.99 1 100% 30 $480 (exactly $480) Do Games Limited
Silent Woods · EA $6.99 1 0% 30 $210 (exactly $210) SQUAD24, Elermond Studio
Otherwise $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) MonstrCorp

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.