Do I ship it?

GamesHuntingHunting + Base Building

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Base Building Hunting game?

Hunting + Base Building

Of 24 developers who shipped a Base Building Hunting game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 70 more are announced, ×5.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $29k, ×47 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $4.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.4M, ×2299 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 70 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 46.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 70 announced, ×5.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Hunting + Base Building
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $6.0k → $9.0k → $104k → $251k → $72k → $5.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Hunting + Base Building: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $4.8k (exactly $4,795)
Median $29k (exactly $29,262)
Top 25% $251k (exactly $250,960)
Top 5% $1.4M (exactly $1,443,836)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 75
Announced 70
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Hunting
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Hunting, Base Building; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Open World Survival Craft, Crafting, Exploration
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $21.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $21.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 27,922 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $4.8k, median $29k, 1 in 4 over $250k, 1 in 20 over $1.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $4.8k. 4 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 70 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Hunting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds19 devs · median $33k · 29 announced
  2. + Co-opPoor odds30 devs · median $22k · 58 announced
  3. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds19 devs · median $22k · 29 announced
  4. + Online Co-OpPoor odds31 devs · median $18k · 56 announced
  5. + AgriculturePoor odds14 devs · median $15k · 20 announced
  6. + SandboxPoor odds37 devs · median $12k · 77 announced
  7. + MagicPoor odds10 devs · median $9.0k · 20 announced
  8. + SimulationPoor odds76 devs · median $5.7k · 128 announced
  9. + BuildingPoor odds37 devs · median $4.8k · 79 announced
  10. + CraftingPoor odds50 devs · median $4.8k · 116 announced
  11. + RoguelikePoor odds11 devs · median $4.8k · 11 announced
  12. + RoguelitePoor odds11 devs · median $4.8k · 15 announced

All 72 pairs on the Hunting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Soulmask $29.99 18,445 76% 553k $17M (exactly $16,594,966) CampFire Studio
Stranded: Alien Dawn older $34.99 9,715 84% 291k $10M (exactly $10,197,836) Haemimont Games
Night of the Dead older $29.99 10,380 77% 311k $9.3M (exactly $9,338,886) Jackto Studios
DYSMANTLE older $19.99 11,022 91% 331k $6.6M (exactly $6,609,893) 10tons Ltd
The Survivalists older $24.99 8,116 76% 243k $6.1M (exactly $6,084,565) Team17
Rising World · EA older $14.99 5,310 85% 159k $2.4M (exactly $2,387,907) JIW-Games
Survivalist: Invisible Strain $11.99 4,014 87% 120k $1.4M (exactly $1,443,836) Bob
IfSunSets · EA $19.99 2,284 74% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,369,715) POLYMORPH
Out of Reach older $14.99 2,390 54% 72k $1.1M (exactly $1,074,783) Space Boat Studios
Card Survival: Fantasy Forest · EA $21.99 1,135 76% 34k $749k (exactly $748,760) WinterSpring Games
Winter Survival $18.99 595 62% 18k $339k (exactly $338,972) DRAGO entertainment
Arctic Motel Simulator $17.99 465 88% 14k $251k (exactly $250,960) One Slice of Pizza Games
DYSPLACED · EA $24.99 296 87% 8.9k $222k (exactly $221,911) 10tons Ltd
Fera: The Sundered Tribes · EA $9.99 394 57% 12k $118k (exactly $118,082) Massive Damage, Inc.
Ecopunk · EA $22.99 133 81% 4.0k $92k (exactly $91,730) Zerone Games
Frost Survival VR $14.99 161 89% 4.8k $72k (exactly $72,402) Wenkly Studio Sp. z o.o.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.