Do I ship it?

GamesHuntingHunting + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Hunting game?

Hunting + Post-apocalyptic

Only 19 developers shipped a Post-apocalyptic Hunting game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, FREEDOM WARS Remastered, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $33k, ×53 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $1.4M, ×2313 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 29 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 53.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 29 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Hunting + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $300 → $76k → $33k → $210k → $898 (still earning) → $12k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Hunting + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $898 (exactly $898)
Median $33k (exactly $33,267)
Top 25% $373k (exactly $372,734)
Top 5% $1.5M (exactly $1,452,837)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 47
Announced 29
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 2%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Hunting
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Hunting; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Exploration, Open World
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 12,194 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $33k, 1 in 4 over $370k, 1 in 20 over $1.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 3 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Hunting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Base BuildingPoor odds24 devs · median $29k · 70 announced
  2. + Co-opPoor odds30 devs · median $22k · 58 announced
  3. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds19 devs · median $22k · 29 announced
  4. + Online Co-OpPoor odds31 devs · median $18k · 56 announced
  5. + AgriculturePoor odds14 devs · median $15k · 20 announced
  6. + SandboxPoor odds37 devs · median $12k · 77 announced
  7. + MagicPoor odds10 devs · median $9.0k · 20 announced
  8. + SimulationPoor odds76 devs · median $5.7k · 128 announced
  9. + BuildingPoor odds37 devs · median $4.8k · 79 announced
  10. + CraftingPoor odds50 devs · median $4.8k · 116 announced
  11. + RoguelikePoor odds11 devs · median $4.8k · 11 announced
  12. + RoguelitePoor odds11 devs · median $4.8k · 15 announced

All 72 pairs on the Hunting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Horizon Zero Dawn™ Complete Edition older $49.99 95,804 87% 2.9M $144M (exactly $143,677,259) Guerrilla
GOD EATER 3 older $59.99 7,736 80% 232k $14M (exactly $13,922,479) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc.
GOD EATER 2 Rage Burst older $49.99 3,510 80% 105k $5.3M (exactly $5,263,947) BANDAI NAMCO Studio, SHIFT, QLOC
FREEDOM WARS Remastered $39.99 1,211 69% 36k $1.5M (exactly $1,452,837) Dimps Corporation
Survivalist: Invisible Strain $11.99 4,014 87% 120k $1.4M (exactly $1,443,836) Bob
IfSunSets · EA $19.99 2,284 74% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,369,715) POLYMORPH
Hunt and Snare · EA older $29.99 720 80% 22k $648k (exactly $647,784) Ruffleneck, Hare, Drathek
UMIGARI | ウミガリ $12.99 1,029 82% 31k $401k (exactly $401,001) Chilla's Art
Paranoia Place: Escape Together $7.99 1,555 87% 47k $373k (exactly $372,734) Bloody Pixel Games
Penko Park older $13.99 602 98% 18k $253k (exactly $252,659) Ghostbutter
Another Try 2 · EA $6.99 1,000 53% 30k $210k (exactly $209,700) Hoki Wolf Studio
Afterinfection $8.99 463 56% 14k $125k (exactly $124,871) RePatrick21
Fera: The Sundered Tribes · EA $9.99 394 57% 12k $118k (exactly $118,082) Massive Damage, Inc.
Ecopunk · EA $22.99 133 81% 4.0k $92k (exactly $91,730) Zerone Games
Ice World $9.99 111 57% 3.3k $33k (exactly $33,267) CoolRabbit Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.