Do I ship it?

GamesHuntingHunting + Sandbox

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Hunting Sandbox?

Hunting + Sandbox

Of 37 developers who shipped a Hunting Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 77 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $12k, ×18 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $16M, ×26425 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 77 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 18.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 77 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Hunting + Sandbox
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 37
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.5k → $1.4k → $3.6k → $60k → $9.0k → $7.0k (still earning) → $12k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Hunting + Sandbox: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 37
Bottom 30% $2.2k (exactly $2,155)
Median $12k (exactly $11,513)
Top 25% $72k (exactly $72,402)
Top 5% $17M (exactly $16,594,966)
Developers, 2 yr 37
Released games 102
Announced 77
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Hunting
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Hunting, Sandbox; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Crafting, Survival, Base Building
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 122,201 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.2k, median $12k, 1 in 4 over $72k, 1 in 20 over $16M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.2k. 6 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 77 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Hunting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds19 devs · median $33k · 29 announced
  2. + Base BuildingPoor odds24 devs · median $29k · 70 announced
  3. + Co-opPoor odds30 devs · median $22k · 58 announced
  4. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds19 devs · median $22k · 29 announced
  5. + Online Co-OpPoor odds31 devs · median $18k · 56 announced
  6. + AgriculturePoor odds14 devs · median $15k · 20 announced
  7. + MagicPoor odds10 devs · median $9.0k · 20 announced
  8. + SimulationPoor odds76 devs · median $5.7k · 128 announced
  9. + BuildingPoor odds37 devs · median $4.8k · 79 announced
  10. + CraftingPoor odds50 devs · median $4.8k · 116 announced
  11. + RoguelikePoor odds11 devs · median $4.8k · 11 announced
  12. + RoguelitePoor odds11 devs · median $4.8k · 15 announced

All 72 pairs on the Hunting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SCUM $44.99 98,554 74% 3.0M $133M (exactly $133,018,334) Gamepires
theHunter: Call of the Wild™ older $19.99 170,472 89% 5.1M $102M (exactly $102,232,058) Expansive Worlds
Far Cry 3 older $19.99 122,691 87% 3.7M $74M (exactly $73,577,793) Ubisoft Montreal, Massive Entertainment… (Ubisoft Montreal, Massive Entertainment, and Ubisoft Shanghai)
The Isle · EA older $19.99 111,397 80% 3.3M $67M (exactly $66,804,781) Afterthought LLC
Far Cry® 4 older $29.99 68,485 84% 2.1M $62M (exactly $61,615,954) Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Shanghai,… (Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Shanghai, Toronto, Kiev)
Ranch Simulator: Build, Hunt, Farm older $24.99 40,862 79% 1.2M $31M (exactly $30,634,241) Toxic Dog
Soulmask $29.99 18,445 76% 553k $17M (exactly $16,594,966) CampFire Studio
Night of the Dead older $29.99 10,380 77% 311k $9.3M (exactly $9,338,886) Jackto Studios
DYSMANTLE older $19.99 11,022 91% 331k $6.6M (exactly $6,609,893) 10tons Ltd
The Survivalists older $24.99 8,116 76% 243k $6.1M (exactly $6,084,565) Team17
IfSunSets · EA $19.99 2,284 74% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,369,715) POLYMORPH
Card Survival: Fantasy Forest · EA $21.99 1,135 76% 34k $749k (exactly $748,760) WinterSpring Games
Winter Survival $18.99 595 62% 18k $339k (exactly $338,972) DRAGO entertainment
DYSPLACED · EA $24.99 296 87% 8.9k $222k (exactly $221,911) 10tons Ltd
Cattle Country $18.99 335 86% 10k $191k (exactly $190,849) Castle Pixel, LLC.
Nature & Life - Drunk On Nectar $14.99 263 87% 7.9k $118k (exactly $118,271) Venugopalan Sreedharan
Ecopunk · EA $22.99 133 81% 4.0k $92k (exactly $91,730) Zerone Games
Frost Survival VR $14.99 161 89% 4.8k $72k (exactly $72,402) Wenkly Studio Sp. z o.o.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.