Do I ship it?

GamesHuntingHunting + RPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Hunting RPG?

Hunting + RPG

Of 51 developers who shipped a Hunting RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 100 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.4k, ×5.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $380; 1 in 20 cleared $10M, ×16491 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 100 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 100 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Hunting + RPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 51
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $48k → $1.6k → $5.1k → $3.1k → $125k → $750 → $1.9k (still earning) → $12k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Hunting + RPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 51
Bottom 30% $372 (exactly $372)
Median $3.4k (exactly $3,356)
Top 25% $67k (exactly $67,104)
Top 5% $10M (exactly $10,356,447)
Developers, 2 yr 51
Released games 153
Announced 100
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Hunting
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Hunting, RPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Open World, Action, Character Customization
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 61% positive over 334,850 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $380, median $3.4k, 1 in 4 over $67k, 1 in 20 over $10M.

3 in 10 developers made under $380. 5 in 10 of the 30 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 100 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Hunting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds19 devs · median $33k · 29 announced
  2. + Base BuildingPoor odds24 devs · median $29k · 70 announced
  3. + Co-opPoor odds30 devs · median $22k · 58 announced
  4. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds19 devs · median $22k · 29 announced
  5. + Online Co-OpPoor odds31 devs · median $18k · 56 announced
  6. + AgriculturePoor odds14 devs · median $15k · 20 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds37 devs · median $12k · 77 announced
  8. + MagicPoor odds10 devs · median $9.0k · 20 announced
  9. + SimulationPoor odds76 devs · median $5.7k · 128 announced
  10. + BuildingPoor odds37 devs · median $4.8k · 79 announced
  11. + CraftingPoor odds50 devs · median $4.8k · 116 announced
  12. + RoguelikePoor odds11 devs · median $4.8k · 11 announced

All 72 pairs on the Hunting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Monster Hunter Wilds $39.99 200,984 52% 6.0M $241M (exactly $241,120,505) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Horizon Zero Dawn™ Complete Edition older $49.99 95,804 87% 2.9M $144M (exactly $143,677,259) Guerrilla
SCUM $44.99 98,554 74% 3.0M $133M (exactly $133,018,334) Gamepires
MONSTER HUNTER RISE older $39.99 79,847 84% 2.4M $96M (exactly $95,792,446) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Far Cry 3 older $19.99 122,691 87% 3.7M $74M (exactly $73,577,793) Ubisoft Montreal, Massive Entertainment… (Ubisoft Montreal, Massive Entertainment, and Ubisoft Shanghai)
The Isle · EA older $19.99 111,397 80% 3.3M $67M (exactly $66,804,781) Afterthought LLC
Far Cry® 4 older $29.99 68,485 84% 2.1M $62M (exactly $61,615,954) Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Shanghai,… (Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Shanghai, Toronto, Kiev)
Far Cry® Primal older $29.99 38,798 86% 1.2M $35M (exactly $34,906,561) Ubisoft
WILD HEARTS™ older $69.99 10,626 48% 319k $22M (exactly $22,311,412) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Monster Hunter Stories 2: Wings of Ruin older $39.99 11,845 82% 355k $14M (exactly $14,210,446) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
WolfQuest: Anniversary Edition $29.99 11,511 97% 345k $10M (exactly $10,356,447) eduweb
The Quinfall $9.99 12,073 50% 362k $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278) Vawraek Technology Inc.
Survivalist: Invisible Strain $11.99 4,014 87% 120k $1.4M (exactly $1,443,836) Bob
IfSunSets · EA $19.99 2,284 74% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,369,715) POLYMORPH
WolfQuest: Classic $29.99 1,401 90% 42k $1.3M (exactly $1,260,480) eduweb
Multiverse Loot Hunter $11.99 2,585 80% 78k $930k (exactly $929,824) 游戏养家工作室
Card Survival: Fantasy Forest · EA $21.99 1,135 76% 34k $749k (exactly $748,760) WinterSpring Games
The Axis Unseen $24.99 309 75% 9.3k $232k (exactly $231,657) Just Purkey Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.