Do I ship it?

GamesHuntingHunting + Physics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Hunting game?

Hunting + Physics

Only 12 developers shipped a Physics Hunting game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Deathground, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.8k, ×6.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $390k, ×628 the market median. Revenue is up 3010% on the market; 20 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 3010% on the market, 20 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Hunting + Physics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $599 → $18k → $5.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Hunting + Physics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $3.8k (exactly $3,778)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $17,991)
Top 5% $394k (exactly $394,387)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 30
Announced 20
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 3010% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Hunting
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Hunting, Physics
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 59% positive over 1,073 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $3.8k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $390k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 20 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Hunting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds19 devs · median $33k · 29 announced
  2. + Base BuildingPoor odds24 devs · median $29k · 70 announced
  3. + Co-opPoor odds30 devs · median $22k · 58 announced
  4. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds19 devs · median $22k · 29 announced
  5. + Online Co-OpPoor odds31 devs · median $18k · 56 announced
  6. + AgriculturePoor odds14 devs · median $15k · 20 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds37 devs · median $12k · 77 announced
  8. + MagicPoor odds10 devs · median $9.0k · 20 announced
  9. + SimulationPoor odds76 devs · median $5.7k · 128 announced
  10. + BuildingPoor odds37 devs · median $4.8k · 79 announced
  11. + CraftingPoor odds50 devs · median $4.8k · 116 announced
  12. + RoguelikePoor odds11 devs · median $4.8k · 11 announced

All 72 pairs on the Hunting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Trans-Siberian Railway Simulator · EA older $19.99 1,835 91% 55k $1.1M (exactly $1,100,450) Pentacle
Deathground · EA $14.99 877 61% 26k $394k (exactly $394,387) Jaw Drop Games
Survival Nation older $29.99 235 70% 7.1k $211k (exactly $211,430) Wenkly Studio Sp. z o.o.
Park Ranger Simulator $14.99 82 17% 2.5k $37k (exactly $36,875) Polygon Art
Neolithic Dawn $19.99 30 60% 900 $18k (exactly $17,991) Neolithic LLC
Huntin' Buddies $7.99 52 76% 1.6k $12k (exactly $12,464) Huntin' Buddies Wildlife Management
Goo Deer $14.99 13 53% 390 $5.8k (exactly $5,846) VML Studios
ADAPTR older $14.99 13 92% 390 $5.8k (exactly $5,846) ProjectorGames
Corrupted Hospital : Part1 older $2.99 65 61% 2.0k $5.8k (exactly $5,830) MINO ENTERTAINMENT INC
Birds Hunter · EA $17.99 7 100% 210 $3.8k (exactly $3,778) Bassel Laoun
Spearfishing Simulator $7.99 4 50% 120 $959 (exactly $959) Riv3r
Bird Simulator 24 $7.99 3 100% 90 $719 (exactly $719) PROJECT RAGDOLL
Isle of the Eagle $2.99 4 75% 120 $359 (exactly $359) More K Games LLC
Master Bobber $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Michael Medearis

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.