Do I ship it?

GamesHuntingHunting + Mystery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Hunting game?

Hunting + Mystery

Only 12 developers shipped a Mystery Hunting game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Lightkeeper, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 35 more are announced, ×5.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $250k, ×413 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 35 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 35 announced, ×5.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Hunting + Mystery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $479 → $238 → $2.2k
Outcomes for Hunting + Mystery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,155)
Top 25% $137k (exactly $136,663)
Top 5% $259k (exactly $259,116)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 48
Announced 35
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Hunting
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Mystery
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Hunting
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 1,915 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $130k, 1 in 20 over $250k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 7 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 35 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Hunting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds19 devs · median $33k · 29 announced
  2. + Base BuildingPoor odds24 devs · median $29k · 70 announced
  3. + Co-opPoor odds30 devs · median $22k · 58 announced
  4. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds19 devs · median $22k · 29 announced
  5. + Online Co-OpPoor odds31 devs · median $18k · 56 announced
  6. + AgriculturePoor odds14 devs · median $15k · 20 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds37 devs · median $12k · 77 announced
  8. + MagicPoor odds10 devs · median $9.0k · 20 announced
  9. + SimulationPoor odds76 devs · median $5.7k · 128 announced
  10. + BuildingPoor odds37 devs · median $4.8k · 79 announced
  11. + CraftingPoor odds50 devs · median $4.8k · 116 announced
  12. + RoguelikePoor odds11 devs · median $4.8k · 11 announced

All 72 pairs on the Hunting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Lightkeeper $7.99 1,081 81% 32k $259k (exactly $259,116) Darkphobia Games
Penko Park older $13.99 602 98% 18k $253k (exactly $252,659) Ghostbutter
DYSPLACED · EA $24.99 296 87% 8.9k $222k (exactly $221,911) 10tons Ltd
A Day Out older $9.99 607 76% 18k $182k (exactly $181,918) KevTheDev, gamesbychris
Hachishaku $9.99 456 85% 14k $137k (exactly $136,663) Trash Panda Games
Shadows Peak older $9.99 297 70% 8.9k $89k (exactly $89,011) Gua
Northern Lights · EA older $11.99 236 63% 7.1k $85k (exactly $84,889) MadGoat Studio
Dinosis Survival older $5.99 291 55% 8.7k $52k (exactly $52,293) Corpix Games
SO BELOW · EA older $11.99 56 73% 1.7k $20k (exactly $20,143) Eonia Studio
Full Quiet older $9.99 31 80% 930 $9.3k (exactly $9,291) Retrotainment Games
I Mother $14.99 17 94% 510 $7.6k (exactly $7,645) HellYeah!
Raccoon on a boat $5.99 33 60% 990 $5.9k (exactly $5,930) PUMPKIM
Five Mysterious Murders · EA $3.99 18 100% 540 $2.2k (exactly $2,155) Silencer
Hunter's Journey: Nightmare Hunting Collector's Edition $15.99 1 100% 30 $480 (exactly $480) Do Games Limited
The Kitchen Knife $4.99 3 33% 90 $449 (exactly $449) One Hand Studio
Ravenhille: Awakened $5.99 2 100% 60 $359 (exactly $359) QuantumPixel
Leshy Prelude $0.99 8 87% 240 $238 (exactly $238) Hassan Khan, Shahmir Khan

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.