Do I ship it?

GamesMystery DungeonMystery Dungeon + Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Horror Mystery Dungeon?

Mystery Dungeon + Horror

Of 125 developers who shipped a Horror Mystery Dungeon in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 127 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $420, ×0.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90; 1 in 20 cleared $32k, ×69 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 127 games are announced against 59 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 127 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Mystery Dungeon + Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 125
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $958 → $897 → $1.4k → $298 → $599 → $239 (still earning) → $59 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Mystery Dungeon + Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 125
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $418 (exactly $418)
Top 25% $2.6k (exactly $2,637)
Top 5% $33k (exactly $32,733)
Developers, 2 yr 125
Released games 314
Announced 127
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Horror
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Mystery Dungeon; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Exploration
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 3,701 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $420, 1 in 4 over $2.6k, 1 in 20 over $32k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. Nearly all of the 81 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 127 games are announced against 59 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Mystery Dungeon with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  2. + TacticalStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Auto BattlerFair17 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  4. + RomanceFair12 devs · median $5.8k · 10 announced
  5. + Perma DeathFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + Tactical RPGFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair34 devs · median $1.6k · 35 announced
  8. + SimulationFair57 devs · median $1.3k · 67 announced
  9. + Bullet HellFair14 devs · median $1.0k · 18 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair11 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  11. + HistoricalFair7 devs · median $719 · 10 announced
  12. + PhysicsFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced

All 116 pairs on the Mystery Dungeon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Classrooms · EA older $12.99 3,040 89% 91k $1.2M (exactly $1,184,688) Xefier Games, Hillcrest Games Inc.
In Verbis Virtus older $19.99 1,464 78% 44k $878k (exactly $877,961) Indomitus Games
The Backrooms: Survival older $9.99 881 82% 26k $264k (exactly $264,036) RE:CODE
The Coma 2B: Catacomb $14.99 584 75% 18k $263k (exactly $262,625) Dvora Studio Co., Ltd.
The Light Remake older $4.99 1,462 87% 44k $219k (exactly $218,861) Носков Сергей
House of Necrosis $11.99 581 94% 17k $209k (exactly $208,986) Warkus
Unmourned $24.99 258 79% 7.7k $193k (exactly $193,423) Codebros Studio
PIT OF GOBLIN · EA $5.99 915 84% 27k $164k (exactly $164,426) Friendly Foe
Monsters Domain older $19.99 272 34% 8.2k $163k (exactly $163,118) G-DEVS.com
Dracula: Love Kills older $9.99 298 80% 8.9k $89k (exactly $89,311) Waterlily Games
Chained in the Backrooms · EA $2.99 933 68% 28k $84k (exactly $83,690) Task+ Studios
Liminal Shroud $12.99 91 89% 2.7k $35k (exactly $35,463) Everdeep Studios
SAVE · EA $11.99 91 48% 2.7k $33k (exactly $32,733) Influsion Inc.
The Fortress $6.99 151 68% 4.5k $32k (exactly $31,665) Baryonyx Games
SHINONOME ABYSS The Maiden Exorcist $14.99 56 78% 1.7k $25k (exactly $25,183) WODAN,Inc.
Silent Slayer: Vault of the Vampire $19.99 41 70% 1.2k $25k (exactly $24,588) Schell Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.