Do I ship it?

Games › Tactical RPG › Tactical RPG + Hex Grid

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Hex Grid Tactical RPG?

Tactical RPG + Hex Grid

Of 25 developers who shipped a Hex Grid Tactical RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 74 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.2k, ×6.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $970k, ×1555 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 74 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 74 announced, ×4.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical RPG + Hex Grid
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $31k → $4.2k → $6.2k → $27k (still earning) → $2.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical RPG + Hex Grid: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $899 (exactly $899)
Median $4.2k (exactly $4,196)
Top 25% $73k (exactly $72,851)
Top 5% $977k (exactly $976,556)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 66
Announced 74
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Hex Grid
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Tactical RPG, Hex Grid; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Isometric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 5,909 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $4.2k, 1 in 4 over $72k, 1 in 20 over $970k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 8 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 74 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair24 devs · median $9.0k · 29 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  3. + Space SimFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  4. + Point & ClickFair21 devs · median $839 · 26 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair58 devs · median $599 · 49 announced
  6. + Asynchronous MultiplayerPoor odds10 devs · median $63k · 16 announced
  7. + Colony SimPoor odds16 devs · median $41k · 29 announced
  8. + SandboxPoor odds42 devs · median $20k · 102 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds61 devs · median $18k · 81 announced
  10. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $17k · 27 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds23 devs · median $10k · 38 announced
  12. + WarPoor odds80 devs · median $8.7k · 143 announced

All 145 pairs on the Tactical RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Armello 2015 · $8.3M King's Bounty II 2021 · $5.4M Solasta II 2026 · EA · $3.5M Expeditions: Viking 2017 · $3.0M Urtuk: The Desolation 2021 · $1.0M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Armello older $24.99 11,013 82% 330k $8.3M (exactly $8,256,446) League of Geeks
King's Bounty II older $39.99 4,473 61% 134k $5.4M (exactly $5,366,258) Fulqrum Games
Solasta II · EA $39.99 2,931 75% 88k $3.5M (exactly $3,516,321) Tactical Adventures
Expeditions: Viking older $29.99 3,293 82% 99k $3.0M (exactly $2,962,712) Logic Artists
Urtuk: The Desolation older $13.99 2,408 87% 72k $1.0M (exactly $1,010,638) David Kaleta
Eador. Masters of the Broken World older $19.99 1,660 67% 50k $996k (exactly $995,502) Snowbird Games
Frosthaven · EA $39.99 814 72% 24k $977k (exactly $976,556) Snapshot Games Inc.
Tales & Tactics older $17.99 1,737 80% 52k $937k (exactly $937,459) Table 9 Studio
Blackguards older $9.99 3,000 63% 90k $899k (exactly $899,100) Daedalic Entertainment
Legends of Kingdom Rush older $14.99 1,524 66% 46k $685k (exactly $685,343) Ironhide Game Studio
Those Who Rule $17.99 1,116 89% 33k $602k (exactly $602,305) Eldin Turulja
Disciples: Domination $44.99 218 65% 6.5k $294k (exactly $294,235) Artefacts Studio
Hive Blight · EA $12.49 367 94% 11k $138k (exactly $137,515) OptizOnion
Veterum $19.99 204 85% 6.1k $122k (exactly $122,339) Crasleen Games
Conquest Tactics : Realm of Sin $14.99 162 69% 4.9k $73k (exactly $72,851) Singular Sunshine Studios
Deep Fringe · EA $19.99 45 88% 1.4k $27k (exactly $26,986) Bosoneon Studio
Valiant Tactics $14.99 30 70% 900 $13k (exactly $13,491) Felid Entertainment
Master of Luna · EA $14.99 22 95% 660 $9.9k (exactly $9,893) Aleksandr Tiupin

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.