Do I ship it?

GamesReal Time TacticsReal Time Tactics + Hex Grid

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Hex Grid Real Time Tactics?

Real Time Tactics + Hex Grid

Only 16 developers shipped a Hex Grid Real Time Tactics in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Ascension, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 34 more are announced, ×5.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $270 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 6 developers shipped in the last year and 34 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 34 announced, ×5.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real Time Tactics + Hex Grid
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.1k → $240 → $600 → $120 → $1.9k → $239
Outcomes for Real Time Tactics + Hex Grid: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $269 (exactly $269)
Top 25% $7.2k (exactly $7,193)
Top 5% $1.5M (exactly $1,461,469)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 41
Announced 34
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real Time Tactics
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Hex Grid
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Real Time Tactics, Hex Grid
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 61% positive over 2,546 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $270, 1 in 4 over $7.1k, 1 in 20 over $1.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 34 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real Time Tactics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DragonsStrong odds17 devs · median $6.6k · 19 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair12 devs · median $1.8k · 14 announced
  3. + HackingFair11 devs · median $987 · 11 announced
  4. + World War IIPoor odds24 devs · median $67k · 35 announced
  5. + Cold WarPoor odds9 devs · median $19k · 16 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds88 devs · median $19k · 154 announced
  7. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds19 devs · median $16k · 31 announced
  8. + Real-TimePoor odds16 devs · median $16k · 26 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds16 devs · median $13k · 32 announced
  10. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds20 devs · median $9.6k · 50 announced
  11. + God GamePoor odds19 devs · median $7.8k · 32 announced
  12. + Open WorldPoor odds29 devs · median $7.2k · 111 announced

All 176 pairs on the Real Time Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Crying Suns older $24.99 3,149 85% 94k $2.4M (exactly $2,360,805) Alt Shift
Ascension · EA $19.99 2,437 60% 73k $1.5M (exactly $1,461,469) Element Game 微元游戏
WARTILE older $19.99 601 75% 18k $360k (exactly $360,420) Playwood Project
Age of Undead older $19.99 80 76% 2.4k $48k (exactly $47,976) Insane Dreamers
Role of Hex older $9.99 93 69% 2.8k $28k (exactly $27,872) Verde
Combat Directive : Napoleonic Wars $19.99 36 88% 1.1k $22k (exactly $21,589) Fatice Games
World Turtles older $12.99 45 62% 1.4k $18k (exactly $17,536) Re: cOg Mission
Glassbreakers: Champions of Moss $19.99 22 63% 660 $13k (exactly $13,193) Polyarc
They Came From Below older $24.99 17 58% 510 $13k (exactly $12,745) Piece Of Voxel
Tribe Nation $9.99 24 79% 720 $7.2k (exactly $7,193) Random Worlds s.r.o.
America Against Ants $14.99 9 100% 270 $4.0k (exactly $4,047) Aartform Games, Mark Brendan
Settle and Battle: New Empires $6.99 9 100% 270 $1.9k (exactly $1,887) Attic Games Studio
Tiny Kings · EA $4.99 2 50% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Floating Chicken Games
Supreme Power $2.99 3 100% 90 $269 (exactly $269) Samuel Parker
Last Throne · EA $3.99 2 100% 60 $239 (exactly $239) LKHGames
Bubblecore: Survivors $3.99 2 100% 60 $239 (exactly $239) King Suslik Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.