Should I ship a PvP Hex Grid game?
PvP + Hex Grid
Of 39 developers who shipped a PvP Hex Grid game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 73 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×1.2 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $48k, ×32 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 73 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $629 (exactly $629) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.8k (exactly $1,798) |
| Top 25% | $5.5k (exactly $5,456) |
| Top 5% | $48k (exactly $48,279) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 39 |
| Released games | 112 |
| Announced | 73 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 125% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- PvP, Hex Grid; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Tactical, Turn-Based Strategy
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.95 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $39.95 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 48% positive over 45,208 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $630. 9 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 73 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + BaseballFair
- + TransportationFair
- + BasketballFair
- + Football (American)Fair
- + BikesFair
- + GolfFair
- + World War IFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + BilliardsFair
- + TennisLong shot
- + TypingLong shot
- + SpellingLong shot
Comparable games
Sid Meier's Civilization VII 2025 · $94M 
For The King II 2023 · $9.5M 
Armello 2015 · $8.3M 
Galactic Civilizations III 2015 · $7.5M 
Age of Wonders: Planetfall 2019 · $4.3M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Sid Meier's Civilization VII | $69.99 | 44,789 48% | 1.3M | $94M (exactly $94,043,463) | Firaxis Games | |
| | For The King II | older | $24.99 | 12,708 71% | 381k | $9.5M (exactly $9,527,188) | IronOak Games |
| | Armello | older | $24.99 | 11,013 82% | 330k | $8.3M (exactly $8,256,446) | League of Geeks |
| | Galactic Civilizations III | older | $29.99 | 8,337 77% | 250k | $7.5M (exactly $7,500,799) | Stardock Entertainment |
| | Age of Wonders: Planetfall | older | $29.99 | 4,758 80% | 143k | $4.3M (exactly $4,280,773) | Triumph Studios |
 | Millennia | older | $39.99 | 2,976 67% | 89k | $3.6M (exactly $3,570,307) | C Prompt Games |
 | Terraforming Mars | older | $19.99 | 5,194 71% | 156k | $3.1M (exactly $3,114,842) | Artefacts Studio |
 | Scythe: Digital Edition | older | $19.99 | 3,164 89% | 95k | $1.9M (exactly $1,897,451) | The Knights of Unity |
 | TerraScape | older | $14.99 | 2,068 88% | 62k | $930k (exactly $929,980) | Bitfall Studios |
 | Hexarchy | older | $19.99 | 1,231 83% | 37k | $738k (exactly $738,231) | Main Tank Software |
 | Space Imperia 4X | $22.99 | 70 92% | 2.1k | $48k (exactly $48,279) | Breich Games | |
 | Eclipse - 2nd Dawn for the Galaxy | $12.99 | 95 57% | 2.9k | $37k (exactly $37,022) | BrettspielWelt GmbH | |
 | Sword & Siege Crusades: Book I | $39.95 | 19 100% | 570 | $23k (exactly $22,772) | Wargame Design Studio | |
 | Flawed Tactics | $9.99 | 59 89% | 1.8k | $18k (exactly $17,682) | Flawed Games | |
 | Saratoga | $9.99 | 45 95% | 1.4k | $13k (exactly $13,486) | Hexes of War | |
 | Glassbreakers: Champions of Moss | $19.99 | 22 63% | 660 | $13k (exactly $13,193) | Polyarc | |
 | Politon | $4.99 | 81 90% | 2.4k | $12k (exactly $12,126) | Pinq Games | |
 | Super World War | $19.99 | 19 100% | 570 | $11k (exactly $11,394) | Zero Games Studios | |
 | American Revolutionary War | $39.95 | 9 100% | 270 | $11k (exactly $10,786) | Wargame Design Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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