Do I ship it?

Games › Physics › Physics + Heist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Heist Physics game?

Physics + Heist

Only 14 developers shipped a Heist Physics game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Burglin' Gnomes, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 46 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.7k, ×11 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2212 the market median. Revenue is up 30% on the market; 46 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 30% on the market, 46 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Heist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.8k → $84k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Heist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $3.4k (exactly $3,418)
Median $6.7k (exactly $6,736)
Top 25% $84k (exactly $84,374)
Top 5% $1.4M (exactly $1,389,110)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 38
Announced 46
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply 265% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Heist
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Physics; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Co-op, Action-Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Funny, 3D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 9,634 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.5k, median $6.7k, 1 in 4 over $84k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.5k. 46 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Teardown 2022 · $114M Just Cause 4 Reloaded 2018 · $28M Rubber Bandits 2021 · $1.7M Burglin' Gnomes 2026 · $1.4M The Break-In 2025 · $1.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Teardown older $29.99 126,563 95% 3.8M $114M (exactly $113,868,731) Tuxedo Labs
Just Cause 4 Reloaded older $39.64 23,358 63% 701k $28M (exactly $27,777,334) Avalanche Studios
Rubber Bandits older $9.99 5,628 84% 169k $1.7M (exactly $1,686,712) Flashbulb
Burglin' Gnomes $9.99 4,635 83% 139k $1.4M (exactly $1,389,110) Fobri
The Break-In $19.99 2,040 87% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,223,388) jorgen games Ltd, Oliver Josh
The Greatest Penguin Heist of All Time $14.99 2,361 90% 71k $1.1M (exactly $1,061,742) That Fish, That Other Fish
Crash Time 2 older $4.99 1,170 63% 35k $175k (exactly $175,149) ·
Frog Sqwad 🐸 $7.99 352 72% 11k $84k (exactly $84,374) Panic Stations
Super Magbot older $9.99 204 89% 6.1k $61k (exactly $61,139) Astral Pixel
Hazard Levels · EA $9.99 70 71% 2.1k $21k (exactly $20,979) Wales Interactive
Burgle Supply Company $7.99 85 88% 2.6k $20k (exactly $20,374) Terrible Posture Games
Kitchen Wars $4.99 45 80% 1.4k $6.7k (exactly $6,736) Silent Owl
Storage Looter $7.99 20 100% 600 $4.8k (exactly $4,794) Tekila
Loot Gobblin' Together $7.99 20 90% 600 $4.8k (exactly $4,794) J6 Games
Unseen Diplomacy 2 $18.99 6 83% 180 $3.4k (exactly $3,418) Triangular Pixels

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.