Do I ship it?

GamesGun CustomizationGun Customization + War

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a War Gun Customization game?

Gun Customization + War

Of 28 developers who shipped a War Gun Customization game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 81 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×5.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $20M, ×32078 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 81 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 81 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Gun Customization + War
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.0k → $61k → $748 → $5.4k → $1.2k → $16k → $748 (still earning) → $39k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Gun Customization + War: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $720 (exactly $720)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,148)
Top 25% $369k (exactly $369,415)
Top 5% $20M (exactly $20,145,183)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 106
Announced 81
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 120% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Gun Customization
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
War
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Gun Customization; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Shooter, Action, FPS
Price point
$12.00 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $12.00.

The top 10 games average 59% positive over 87,848 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $360k, 1 in 20 over $20M.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 6 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 81 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Gun Customization with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Tower DefenseFair26 devs · median $958 · 32 announced
  2. + DystopianPoor odds16 devs · median $51k · 58 announced
  3. + Immersive SimPoor odds12 devs · median $25k · 44 announced
  4. + BuildingPoor odds13 devs · median $16k · 39 announced
  5. + Survival HorrorPoor odds26 devs · median $14k · 55 announced
  6. + ModernPoor odds18 devs · median $14k · 38 announced
  7. + MilitaryPoor odds50 devs · median $13k · 126 announced
  8. + StealthPoor odds20 devs · median $13k · 63 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds31 devs · median $11k · 92 announced
  10. + MechsPoor odds12 devs · median $11k · 32 announced
  11. + Resource ManagementPoor odds28 devs · median $11k · 71 announced
  12. + Base BuildingPoor odds23 devs · median $9.1k · 64 announced

All 93 pairs on the Gun Customization page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Escape from Tarkov $49.99 55,824 49% 1.7M $84M (exactly $83,719,253) Battlestate Games
Gray Zone Warfare · EA older $39.99 69,146 72% 2.1M $83M (exactly $82,954,456) MADFINGER Games, a.s.
Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare® older $59.99 43,229 79% 1.3M $78M (exactly $77,799,231) Infinity Ward, Beenox, High Moon Studio… (Infinity Ward, Beenox, High Moon Studios, Raven Software)
BattleBit Remastered · EA older $14.99 127,680 82% 3.8M $57M (exactly $57,417,696) SgtOkiDoki, Vilaskis, TheLiquidHorse
Call of Duty®: Black Ops Cold War older $59.99 21,955 79% 659k $40M (exactly $39,512,414) Treyarch, Raven Software, High Moon Stu… (Treyarch, Raven Software, High Moon Studios, Beenox, Activision Shanghai, Sledgehammer Games)
Sniper Elite 5 older $49.99 24,818 83% 745k $37M (exactly $37,219,555) Rebellion
GROUND BRANCH $29.99 22,391 83% 672k $20M (exactly $20,145,183) BlackFoot Studios, MicroProse Software
Sniper Ghost Warrior Contracts 2 older $39.99 12,781 83% 383k $15M (exactly $15,333,366) CI Games
Call of Duty®: Black Ops 7 $69.99 4,344 37% 130k $9.1M (exactly $9,121,097) Treyarch, Raven Software, Beenox, High… (Treyarch, Raven Software, Beenox, High Moon Studios, Sledgehammer Games, Infinity Ward, Activision Shanghai, Demonware)
From the Depths older $24.99 11,059 89% 332k $8.3M (exactly $8,290,932) Brilliant Skies Ltd.
Forefront $27.99 1,913 84% 57k $1.6M (exactly $1,606,346) Triangle Factory
Bad 2 Bad: Apocalypse $19.99 905 77% 27k $543k (exactly $542,728) DAWINSTONE
Dagger Directive $19.99 802 83% 24k $481k (exactly $480,959) Arcane Alpacas LLC
Ratten Reich $19.99 616 40% 18k $369k (exactly $369,415) METALLADLERSTUDIO
Medieval Blacksmith $19.99 591 79% 18k $354k (exactly $354,423) OGO Play
Zero Caliber 2 Remastered $24.99 433 79% 13k $325k (exactly $324,620) XREAL Games
BURNED HORIZONS · EA $44.99 29 34% 870 $39k (exactly $39,141) BURNED HORIZONS STUDIO

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.