Games › Gun Customization › Gun Customization + Simulation
Should I ship a Gun Customization Simulation game?
Gun Customization + Simulation
Of 42 developers who shipped a Gun Customization Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 117 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $5.1k, ×8.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $750; 1 in 20 cleared $13M, ×21748 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 117 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $748 (exactly $748) |
|---|---|
| Median | $5.1k (exactly $5,066) |
| Top 25% | $73k (exactly $72,851) |
| Top 5% | $14M (exactly $13,657,568) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 42 |
| Released games | 136 |
| Announced | 117 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Gun Customization
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Simulation
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Gun Customization, Simulation; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, FPS, Shooter
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Realistic, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 68% positive over 109,715 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $750. 5 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 117 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Gun Customization with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Tower DefenseFair
- + DystopianPoor odds
- + Immersive SimPoor odds
- + BuildingPoor odds
- + Survival HorrorPoor odds
- + ModernPoor odds
- + MilitaryPoor odds
- + StealthPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + MechsPoor odds
- + Resource ManagementPoor odds
- + Base BuildingPoor odds
Comparable games
PAYDAY 2 2013 · $134M 
Escape from Tarkov 2025 · $84M 
Gray Zone Warfare 2024 · EA · $83M 
Brick Rigs 2023 · $32M 
GROUND BRANCH 2026 · $20M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | PAYDAY 2 | older | $9.99 | 445,531 89% | 13M | $134M (exactly $133,525,641) | OVERKILL - a Starbreeze Studio., Sidetr… (OVERKILL - a Starbreeze Studio., Sidetrack Games) |
| | Escape from Tarkov | $49.99 | 55,824 49% | 1.7M | $84M (exactly $83,719,253) | Battlestate Games | |
| | Gray Zone Warfare | · EA older | $39.99 | 69,146 72% | 2.1M | $83M (exactly $82,954,456) | MADFINGER Games, a.s. |
| | Brick Rigs | older | $19.99 | 53,749 95% | 1.6M | $32M (exactly $32,233,275) | Fluppisoft GmbH |
| | GROUND BRANCH | $29.99 | 22,391 83% | 672k | $20M (exactly $20,145,183) | BlackFoot Studios, MicroProse Software | |
 | Hot Dogs, Horseshoes & Hand Grenades | $19.99 | 22,774 97% | 683k | $14M (exactly $13,657,568) | RUST LTD. | |
 | From the Depths | older | $24.99 | 11,059 89% | 332k | $8.3M (exactly $8,290,932) | Brilliant Skies Ltd. |
 | Way of the Hunter | older | $29.99 | 8,528 81% | 256k | $7.7M (exactly $7,672,642) | Nine Rocks Games |
 | Into the Radius 2 | $39.99 | 5,253 79% | 158k | $6.3M (exactly $6,302,024) | CM IMMERSIVE | |
 | OPERATOR | · EA older | $19.99 | 8,605 86% | 258k | $5.2M (exactly $5,160,418) | VECTOR INTERACTIVE PTY LTD |
 | Dagger Directive | $19.99 | 802 83% | 24k | $481k (exactly $480,959) | Arcane Alpacas LLC | |
 | SWAT Commander | · EA | $19.99 | 665 77% | 20k | $399k (exactly $398,800) | Red Mountain Games, Ritual Interactive |
 | Medieval Blacksmith | $19.99 | 591 79% | 18k | $354k (exactly $354,423) | OGO Play | |
 | They Killed Your Cat | $6.99 | 883 75% | 26k | $185k (exactly $185,165) | Vekaria | |
 | EXFIL | · EA | $19.99 | 302 67% | 9.1k | $181k (exactly $181,109) | Tiny Leviathan |
 | Welcome Back, Commander | $14.99 | 230 80% | 6.9k | $103k (exactly $103,431) | S.C. 16 BIT NIGHTS S.R.L. |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.