Do I ship it?

Games › Gun Customization › Gun Customization + Shoot 'Em Up

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gun Customization Shoot 'Em Up?

Gun Customization + Shoot 'Em Up

Of 58 developers who shipped a Gun Customization Shoot 'Em Up in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 94 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $170k, ×281 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 94 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 94 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Gun Customization + Shoot 'Em Up
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 58
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.7k → $1.3k → $1.6k → $4.6k → $4.9k → $776 → $1.3k (still earning) → $959 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Gun Customization + Shoot 'Em Up: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 58
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,256)
Top 25% $6.2k (exactly $6,235)
Top 5% $177k (exactly $176,523)
Developers, 2 yr 58
Released games 222
Announced 94
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Gun Customization
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Shoot 'Em Up
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Gun Customization, Shoot 'Em Up; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Bullet Hell, Action Roguelike
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 4,178 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $6.2k, 1 in 20 over $170k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 25 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 94 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Gun Customization with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Tower DefenseFair26 devs · median $958 · 32 announced
  2. + DystopianPoor odds16 devs · median $51k · 58 announced
  3. + Immersive SimPoor odds12 devs · median $25k · 44 announced
  4. + BuildingPoor odds13 devs · median $16k · 39 announced
  5. + Survival HorrorPoor odds26 devs · median $14k · 55 announced
  6. + ModernPoor odds18 devs · median $14k · 38 announced
  7. + MilitaryPoor odds50 devs · median $13k · 126 announced
  8. + StealthPoor odds20 devs · median $13k · 63 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds31 devs · median $11k · 92 announced
  10. + MechsPoor odds12 devs · median $11k · 32 announced
  11. + Resource ManagementPoor odds28 devs · median $11k · 71 announced
  12. + Base BuildingPoor odds23 devs · median $9.1k · 64 announced

All 93 pairs on the Gun Customization page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

PAYDAY 3 2023 · $44M 20 Minutes Till Dawn 2023 · $4.2M Soda Crisis 2022 · $961k Death in the Water 2 2023 · $780k Iron Meat 2024 · $589k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
PAYDAY 3 older $29.99 49,305 45% 1.5M $44M (exactly $44,359,708) Starbreeze Studios
20 Minutes Till Dawn older $4.99 27,872 90% 836k $4.2M (exactly $4,172,438) flanne
Soda Crisis older $10.99 2,915 93% 87k $961k (exactly $961,076) Team Soda
Death in the Water 2 older $14.99 1,734 83% 52k $780k (exactly $779,780) Lighthouse Games Studio
Iron Meat $19.99 982 96% 29k $589k (exactly $588,905) Ivan Valeryevich Suvorov, Retroware
Wings of Seduction: Bust 'em out! older $12.99 904 93% 27k $352k (exactly $352,289) Ramen Cat Studio
Genome Guardian 2 · EA $15.99 410 95% 12k $197k (exactly $196,677) Alpherior
LONN older $29.99 201 64% 6.0k $181k (exactly $180,840) SixSense Studios
Ultimate Zombie Defense 2 $9.99 589 76% 18k $177k (exactly $176,523) Terror Dog Studio
FISH · EA $9.99 583 94% 17k $175k (exactly $174,725) dmcaguy
SealChain: Call of Blood $8.99 537 56% 16k $145k (exactly $144,829) AliveGameStudio
Time Treker $6.99 399 65% 12k $84k (exactly $83,670) Fuse Game
Ogre Chambers 2222 $7.99 254 96% 7.6k $61k (exactly $60,884) ANTENNA GAMES
Graveyard Gunslingers $7.99 224 58% 6.7k $54k (exactly $53,693) PyroPhysics
Schism $11.99 140 96% 4.2k $50k (exactly $50,358) Fami
Look Mum No Computer $14.99 60 98% 1.8k $27k (exactly $26,982) The Bitfather

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.