Do I ship it?

Games › Gun Customization › Gun Customization + Sandbox

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gun Customization Sandbox?

Gun Customization + Sandbox

Of 27 developers who shipped a Gun Customization Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 68 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $13M, ×21748 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 68 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 68 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Gun Customization + Sandbox
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 27
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $11k → $5.7k → $31k → $599 → $1.5k (still earning) → $5.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Gun Customization + Sandbox: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 27
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,468)
Top 25% $55k (exactly $55,172)
Top 5% $14M (exactly $13,657,568)
Developers, 2 yr 27
Released games 80
Announced 68
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Gun Customization
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Gun Customization, Sandbox; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Action, Base Building
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 47,966 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $55k, 1 in 20 over $13M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 4 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 68 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Gun Customization with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Tower DefenseFair26 devs · median $958 · 32 announced
  2. + DystopianPoor odds16 devs · median $51k · 58 announced
  3. + Immersive SimPoor odds12 devs · median $25k · 44 announced
  4. + BuildingPoor odds13 devs · median $16k · 39 announced
  5. + Survival HorrorPoor odds26 devs · median $14k · 55 announced
  6. + ModernPoor odds18 devs · median $14k · 38 announced
  7. + MilitaryPoor odds50 devs · median $13k · 126 announced
  8. + StealthPoor odds20 devs · median $13k · 63 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds31 devs · median $11k · 92 announced
  10. + MechsPoor odds12 devs · median $11k · 32 announced
  11. + Resource ManagementPoor odds28 devs · median $11k · 71 announced
  12. + Base BuildingPoor odds23 devs · median $9.1k · 64 announced

All 93 pairs on the Gun Customization page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Noita 2020 · $49M Brick Rigs 2023 · $32M GROUND BRANCH 2026 · $20M Hot Dogs, Horseshoes & Hand Grenades 2026 · $14M From the Depths 2020 · $8.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Noita older $19.99 81,149 95% 2.4M $49M (exactly $48,665,055) Nolla Games
Brick Rigs older $19.99 53,749 95% 1.6M $32M (exactly $32,233,275) Fluppisoft GmbH
GROUND BRANCH $29.99 22,391 83% 672k $20M (exactly $20,145,183) BlackFoot Studios, MicroProse Software
Hot Dogs, Horseshoes & Hand Grenades $19.99 22,774 97% 683k $14M (exactly $13,657,568) RUST LTD.
From the Depths older $24.99 11,059 89% 332k $8.3M (exactly $8,290,932) Brilliant Skies Ltd.
Sprocket · EA older $19.99 12,336 92% 370k $7.4M (exactly $7,397,899) Hamish Dunn
ERA ONE · EA $29.99 1,575 86% 47k $1.4M (exactly $1,417,028) Team Complex LTD
NavalArt · EA older $19.99 2,362 90% 71k $1.4M (exactly $1,416,491) Rigidbody
Rise of Gun older $12.99 1,094 84% 33k $426k (exactly $426,332) PimpGameStudio
Medieval Blacksmith $19.99 591 79% 18k $354k (exactly $354,423) OGO Play
Welcome Back, Commander $14.99 230 80% 6.9k $103k (exactly $103,431) S.C. 16 BIT NIGHTS S.R.L.
Gun Factory Simulator · EA $14.99 162 62% 4.9k $73k (exactly $72,851) Broken Clock
Territory Control 2 · EA $19.99 92 77% 2.8k $55k (exactly $55,172) TFlippy, Knorrepot
BURNED HORIZONS · EA $44.99 29 34% 870 $39k (exactly $39,141) BURNED HORIZONS STUDIO
Crazy Islands $13.99 73 68% 2.2k $31k (exactly $30,638) Ge-Aivan
Blacksmith Simulator $15.99 49 32% 1.5k $24k (exactly $23,505) Potato Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.