Do I ship it?

Games › Gun Customization › Gun Customization + RPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gun Customization RPG?

Gun Customization + RPG

Of 66 developers who shipped a Gun Customization RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 157 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.7k, ×7.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $1.7M, ×2708 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 157 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 157 announced, ×4.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Gun Customization + RPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 66
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.3k → $11k → $8.1k → $21k → $50k → $1.9k → $2.8k (still earning) → $5.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Gun Customization + RPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 66
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $4.7k (exactly $4,676)
Top 25% $51k (exactly $51,249)
Top 5% $1.7M (exactly $1,700,554)
Developers, 2 yr 66
Released games 183
Announced 157
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Gun Customization
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Gun Customization, RPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action RPG, Shooter
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $22.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $22.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 106,631 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $4.7k, 1 in 4 over $51k, 1 in 20 over $1.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 5 in 10 of the 36 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 157 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Gun Customization with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Tower DefenseFair26 devs · median $958 · 32 announced
  2. + DystopianPoor odds16 devs · median $51k · 58 announced
  3. + Immersive SimPoor odds12 devs · median $25k · 44 announced
  4. + BuildingPoor odds13 devs · median $16k · 39 announced
  5. + Survival HorrorPoor odds26 devs · median $14k · 55 announced
  6. + ModernPoor odds18 devs · median $14k · 38 announced
  7. + MilitaryPoor odds50 devs · median $13k · 126 announced
  8. + StealthPoor odds20 devs · median $13k · 63 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds31 devs · median $11k · 92 announced
  10. + MechsPoor odds12 devs · median $11k · 32 announced
  11. + Resource ManagementPoor odds28 devs · median $11k · 71 announced
  12. + Base BuildingPoor odds23 devs · median $9.1k · 64 announced

All 93 pairs on the Gun Customization page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Noita 2020 · $49M Escape From Duckov 2025 · $45M PAYDAY 3 2023 · $44M SULFUR 2024 · EA · $7.2M OPERATOR 2023 · EA · $5.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Noita older $19.99 81,149 95% 2.4M $49M (exactly $48,665,055) Nolla Games
Escape From Duckov $17.99 83,826 85% 2.5M $45M (exactly $45,240,892) Team Soda
PAYDAY 3 older $29.99 49,305 45% 1.5M $44M (exactly $44,359,708) Starbreeze Studios
SULFUR · EA $24.99 9,641 87% 289k $7.2M (exactly $7,227,858) Perfect Random
OPERATOR · EA older $19.99 8,605 86% 258k $5.2M (exactly $5,160,418) VECTOR INTERACTIVE PTY LTD
20 Minutes Till Dawn older $4.99 27,872 90% 836k $4.2M (exactly $4,172,438) flanne
M.A.S.S. Builder $24.99 3,729 85% 112k $2.8M (exactly $2,795,631) Vermillion Digital
Killsquad older $29.99 2,839 71% 85k $2.6M (exactly $2,554,248) Novarama
SAND LAND older $59.99 1,018 86% 31k $1.8M (exactly $1,832,095) ILCA, Inc.
Pass the Fear $18.99 2,985 79% 90k $1.7M (exactly $1,700,554) PlayMud Studio
Wanderburg · EA $14.99 2,103 78% 63k $946k (exactly $945,719) Randwerk
Chernobylite 2: Exclusion Zone · EA $39.99 528 62% 16k $633k (exactly $633,442) The Farm 51
Bad 2 Bad: Apocalypse $19.99 905 77% 27k $543k (exactly $542,728) DAWINSTONE
NIMRODS · EA $9.99 1,783 85% 53k $534k (exactly $534,365) Fiveamp
Medieval Blacksmith $19.99 591 79% 18k $354k (exactly $354,423) OGO Play
Z.O.N.A: Origin $19.99 540 83% 16k $324k (exactly $323,838) AGaming+

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.