Do I ship it?

GamesGun CustomizationGun Customization + Puzzle

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gun Customization Puzzle game?

Gun Customization + Puzzle

Only 13 developers shipped a Gun Customization Puzzle game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Tache Noire, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $25k, ×41 the market median. Revenue is up 210% on the market; 20 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 210% on the market, 20 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Gun Customization + Puzzle
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $959 → $30 → $2.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Gun Customization + Puzzle: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $718 (exactly $718)
Top 25% $1.1k (exactly $1,078)
Top 5% $25k (exactly $25,485)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 35
Announced 20
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 210% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Gun Customization
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Gun Customization, Puzzle; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Exploration
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 116 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $720, 1 in 4 over $1.0k, 1 in 20 over $25k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. All of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 20 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Gun Customization with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Tower DefenseFair26 devs · median $958 · 32 announced
  2. + DystopianPoor odds16 devs · median $51k · 58 announced
  3. + Immersive SimPoor odds12 devs · median $25k · 44 announced
  4. + BuildingPoor odds13 devs · median $16k · 39 announced
  5. + Survival HorrorPoor odds26 devs · median $14k · 55 announced
  6. + ModernPoor odds18 devs · median $14k · 38 announced
  7. + MilitaryPoor odds50 devs · median $13k · 126 announced
  8. + StealthPoor odds20 devs · median $13k · 63 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds31 devs · median $11k · 92 announced
  10. + MechsPoor odds12 devs · median $11k · 32 announced
  11. + Resource ManagementPoor odds28 devs · median $11k · 71 announced
  12. + Base BuildingPoor odds23 devs · median $9.1k · 64 announced

All 93 pairs on the Gun Customization page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Save Room - Organization Puzzle older $2.99 2,033 97% 61k $182k (exactly $182,360) Fractal Projects
Machick older $6.99 208 84% 6.2k $44k (exactly $43,618) DeadPixel
Tache Noire $16.99 50 94% 1.5k $25k (exactly $25,485) StitchedCliffs
Save Room - The Merchant older $2.99 220 69% 6.6k $20k (exactly $19,734) Fractal Projects
Cold Iron - Quick Draw Western Duels older $13.99 39 76% 1.2k $16k (exactly $16,368) Catch & Release, LLC
They Сame From Above older $24.99 16 62% 480 $12k (exactly $11,995) Piece Of Voxel
Star Mining Co. $8.99 29 82% 870 $7.8k (exactly $7,821) Barney Whiteman
PINK ELEPHANT older $4.99 44 81% 1.3k $6.6k (exactly $6,587) IOIG Games
FETUS older $4.99 27 81% 810 $4.0k (exactly $4,042) LenstroyS
Nauts $8.99 10 100% 300 $2.7k (exactly $2,697) Jorge A. García González, Carlos Álvare… (Jorge A. García González, Carlos Álvarez-Nava González)
Palland: Creature Tamer World $5.99 6 83% 180 $1.1k (exactly $1,078) BoggySoft
Neanderthallica $7.99 4 100% 120 $959 (exactly $959) Cheers LLC
The Elquest | The Legend of Immortal Dremond $7.99 3 66% 90 $719 (exactly $719) Domax Games
Rushfall $2.99 8 62% 240 $718 (exactly $718) kazakovstudios, Sharkgame
AO: Containment Breach · EA $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) Prismatix-
Mod Mage Mike $6.99 2 100% 60 $419 (exactly $419) ZilpZilp Games
Finding Cool Sticks $4.99 2 0% 60 $299 (exactly $299) echomune

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.