Do I ship it?

Games › Gun Customization › Gun Customization + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Gun Customization game?

Gun Customization + Post-apocalyptic

Of 54 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic Gun Customization game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 162 more are announced, ×7.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.1k, ×13 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $5.1M, ×8256 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 162 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 12.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 162 announced, ×7.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Gun Customization + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 54
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.3k → $1.3k → $2.2k → $5.1k → $8.1k → $2.7k → $5.7k (still earning) → $61k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Gun Customization + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 54
Bottom 30% $2.2k (exactly $2,248)
Median $8.1k (exactly $8,095)
Top 25% $69k (exactly $68,970)
Top 5% $5.2M (exactly $5,185,006)
Developers, 2 yr 54
Released games 147
Announced 162
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Gun Customization
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Gun Customization; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Character Customization
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Realistic, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 43,596 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.3k, median $8.1k, 1 in 4 over $68k, 1 in 20 over $5.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.3k. 6 in 10 of the 36 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 162 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year, ×7.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Gun Customization with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Tower DefenseFair26 devs · median $958 · 32 announced
  2. + DystopianPoor odds16 devs · median $51k · 58 announced
  3. + Immersive SimPoor odds12 devs · median $25k · 44 announced
  4. + BuildingPoor odds13 devs · median $16k · 39 announced
  5. + Survival HorrorPoor odds26 devs · median $14k · 55 announced
  6. + ModernPoor odds18 devs · median $14k · 38 announced
  7. + MilitaryPoor odds50 devs · median $13k · 126 announced
  8. + StealthPoor odds20 devs · median $13k · 63 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds31 devs · median $11k · 92 announced
  10. + MechsPoor odds12 devs · median $11k · 32 announced
  11. + Resource ManagementPoor odds28 devs · median $11k · 71 announced
  12. + Base BuildingPoor odds23 devs · median $9.1k · 64 announced

All 93 pairs on the Gun Customization page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

World War Z 2021 · $22M The Forever Winter 2024 · EA · $19M Into the Radius 2 2026 · $6.3M Road to Vostok 2026 · EA · $5.2M Pistol Whip 2019 · $3.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
World War Z older $29.99 24,897 82% 747k $22M (exactly $22,399,831) Saber Interactive Inc
The Forever Winter · EA $29.99 21,376 68% 641k $19M (exactly $19,231,987) Fun Dog Studios
Into the Radius 2 $39.99 5,253 79% 158k $6.3M (exactly $6,302,024) CM IMMERSIVE
Road to Vostok · EA $19.99 8,646 84% 259k $5.2M (exactly $5,185,006) Road to Vostok Ltd.
Pistol Whip older $29.99 3,586 94% 108k $3.2M (exactly $3,226,324) Cloudhead Games Ltd.
M.A.S.S. Builder $24.99 3,729 85% 112k $2.8M (exactly $2,795,631) Vermillion Digital
CONVRGENCE · EA older $24.99 1,562 88% 47k $1.2M (exactly $1,171,031) Monkey-With-a-Bomb
Echoes of the Living · EA $24.99 1,005 83% 30k $753k (exactly $753,448) MoonGlint Studio
Chernobylite 2: Exclusion Zone · EA $39.99 528 62% 16k $633k (exactly $633,442) The Farm 51
Iron Meat $19.99 982 96% 29k $589k (exactly $588,905) Ivan Valeryevich Suvorov, Retroware
Bad 2 Bad: Apocalypse $19.99 905 77% 27k $543k (exactly $542,728) DAWINSTONE
Cargo Hunters · EA $19.99 739 82% 22k $443k (exactly $443,178) Order Of Meta
Zero Caliber 2 Remastered $24.99 433 79% 13k $325k (exactly $324,620) XREAL Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.