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Should I ship a Gun Customization Perma Death game?
Gun Customization + Perma Death
Of 38 developers who shipped a Gun Customization Perma Death game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 82 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×4.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $130k, ×217 the market median. Revenue is up 105% on the market; 82 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $599 (exactly $599) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.7k (exactly $2,696) |
| Top 25% | $12k (exactly $12,171) |
| Top 5% | $136k (exactly $136,005) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 38 |
| Released games | 100 |
| Announced | 82 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 105% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Gun Customization
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Perma Death
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Gun Customization, Perma Death; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Procedural Generation
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $13.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $13.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 84% positive over 9,728 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $600. 9 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 82 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Gun Customization with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Tower DefenseFair
- + DystopianPoor odds
- + Immersive SimPoor odds
- + BuildingPoor odds
- + Survival HorrorPoor odds
- + ModernPoor odds
- + MilitaryPoor odds
- + StealthPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + MechsPoor odds
- + Resource ManagementPoor odds
- + Base BuildingPoor odds
Comparable games
Noita 2020 · $49M 
Road to Vostok 2026 · EA · $5.2M 
Atomicrops 2020 · $2.3M 
SYNTHETIK 2 2021 · EA · $1.9M 
MOTHERGUNSHIP 2018 · $816k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Noita | older | $19.99 | 81,149 95% | 2.4M | $49M (exactly $48,665,055) | Nolla Games |
| | Road to Vostok | · EA | $19.99 | 8,646 84% | 259k | $5.2M (exactly $5,185,006) | Road to Vostok Ltd. |
| | Atomicrops | older | $14.99 | 5,134 93% | 154k | $2.3M (exactly $2,308,760) | Bird Bath Games |
| | SYNTHETIK 2 | · EA older | $19.99 | 3,202 81% | 96k | $1.9M (exactly $1,920,239) | Flow Fire Games |
| | MOTHERGUNSHIP | older | $24.99 | 1,088 77% | 33k | $816k (exactly $815,674) | Terrible Posture Games, Grip Digital |
 | Spellmasons | older | $19.99 | 1,122 91% | 34k | $673k (exactly $672,863) | Octavia Blue |
 | Windowkill | older | $4.99 | 3,390 95% | 102k | $507k (exactly $507,483) | torcado |
 | Night Raider | older | $5.99 | 1,908 85% | 57k | $343k (exactly $342,868) | TSUKUYOMIC |
 | Voidborn | $12.99 | 349 81% | 10k | $136k (exactly $136,005) | Xekvera | |
 | Choo Choo Survivor | older | $4.99 | 563 85% | 17k | $84k (exactly $84,281) | GTGD |
 | Ogre Chambers 2222 | $7.99 | 254 96% | 7.6k | $61k (exactly $60,884) | ANTENNA GAMES | |
 | Schism | $11.99 | 140 96% | 4.2k | $50k (exactly $50,358) | Fami | |
 | BURNED HORIZONS | · EA | $44.99 | 29 34% | 870 | $39k (exactly $39,141) | BURNED HORIZONS STUDIO |
 | Runehaven | $9.99 | 119 91% | 3.6k | $36k (exactly $35,664) | Cikoria Studio | |
 | Gunstoppable | $12.49 | 58 81% | 1.7k | $22k (exactly $21,733) | CAGE Studios | |
 | Ascendant | $9.99 | 47 70% | 1.4k | $14k (exactly $14,086) | Imagisphere | |
 | SPORTAL | $7.99 | 57 94% | 1.7k | $14k (exactly $13,663) | Sleepwalking Potatoes | |
 | Type or Die | $13.99 | 29 31% | 870 | $12k (exactly $12,171) | Type or Die |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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