Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-BasedTurn-Based + Grid-Based Movement

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Grid-Based Movement Turn-Based game?

Turn-Based + Grid-Based Movement

Of 49 developers who shipped a Grid-Based Movement Turn-Based game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 66 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.4k, ×8.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $5.8M, ×9271 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 66 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.6 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 66 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based + Grid-Based Movement
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 49
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.1k → $9.0k → $37k → $4.5k → $8.5k → $4.8k → $13k (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based + Grid-Based Movement: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 49
Bottom 30% $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Median $5.4k (exactly $5,396)
Top 25% $21k (exactly $20,990)
Top 5% $5.8M (exactly $5,822,144)
Developers, 2 yr 49
Released games 204
Announced 66
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Grid-Based Movement
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based, Grid-Based Movement; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Isometric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 43,504 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $5.4k, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $5.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 9 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 66 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Asynchronous MultiplayerStrong odds13 devs · median $60k · 10 announced
  2. + DragonsStrong odds7 devs · median $53k · 7 announced
  3. + Hack and SlashStrong odds8 devs · median $14k · 1 announced
  4. + SandboxFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  5. + HorrorFair16 devs · median $32k · 18 announced
  6. + CraftingFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  10. + ChessFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  11. + Tower DefensePoor odds9 devs · median $294k · 7 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds16 devs · median $193k · 26 announced

All 110 pairs on the Turn-Based page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
XCOM® 2 older $19.99 79,998 84% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,974,801) Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac),… (Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
STAR WARS Zero Company™ $49.99 19,521 82% 586k $29M (exactly $29,275,644) Bit Reactor
Battle Brothers older $29.99 26,118 87% 784k $23M (exactly $23,498,365) Overhype Studios
MENACE · EA $39.99 12,281 90% 368k $15M (exactly $14,733,516) Overhype Studios
King Arthur: Knight's Tale older $44.99 6,722 83% 202k $9.1M (exactly $9,072,683) NeocoreGames
Xenonauts 2 $39.99 4,853 81% 146k $5.8M (exactly $5,822,144) Goldhawk Interactive
Might & Magic X - Legacy older $29.99 3,178 65% 95k $2.9M (exactly $2,859,247) Ubisoft
Hard West 2 older $29.99 2,717 80% 82k $2.4M (exactly $2,444,485) Ice Code Games
Legend of Grimrock 2 older $23.99 3,065 90% 92k $2.2M (exactly $2,205,880) Almost Human Games
Sol Cesto $13.99 4,838 91% 145k $2.0M (exactly $2,030,509) Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospir… (Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospirale)
Demeo x Dungeons & Dragons: Battlemarked $29.99 1,235 82% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,111,130) Resolution Games
THYSIASTERY $17.49 309 80% 9.3k $162k (exactly $162,132) DIRGA
Lost In The Open · EA $15.99 160 61% 4.8k $77k (exactly $76,752) Black Voyage Games
Guards II: Chaos in Hell $15.99 125 96% 3.8k $60k (exactly $59,962) Battlecruiser Games
Skygard Arena $14.99 93 77% 2.8k $42k (exactly $41,822) Gemelli Games
Shift'n Slay $11.99 89 79% 2.7k $32k (exactly $32,013) DREBOT game studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.