Do I ship it?

Games › Tactical RPG › Tactical RPG + Grid-Based Movement

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Grid-Based Movement Tactical RPG?

Tactical RPG + Grid-Based Movement

Of 65 developers who shipped a Grid-Based Movement Tactical RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 172 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×5.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $600k, ×959 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 172 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 172 announced, ×4.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical RPG + Grid-Based Movement
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 65
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.8k → $8.1k → $38k → $25k → $6.7k → $6.5k → $150 (still earning) → $2.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical RPG + Grid-Based Movement: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 65
Bottom 30% $478 (exactly $478)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,148)
Top 25% $25k (exactly $25,183)
Top 5% $602k (exactly $602,305)
Developers, 2 yr 65
Released games 182
Announced 172
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Grid-Based Movement
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Tactical RPG, Grid-Based Movement; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Tactics, RPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 16,899 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $25k, 1 in 20 over $600k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 8 in 10 of the 30 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 172 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair24 devs · median $9.0k · 29 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  3. + Space SimFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  4. + Point & ClickFair21 devs · median $839 · 26 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair58 devs · median $599 · 49 announced
  6. + Asynchronous MultiplayerPoor odds10 devs · median $63k · 16 announced
  7. + Colony SimPoor odds16 devs · median $41k · 29 announced
  8. + SandboxPoor odds42 devs · median $20k · 102 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds61 devs · median $18k · 81 announced
  10. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $17k · 27 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds23 devs · median $10k · 38 announced
  12. + WarPoor odds80 devs · median $8.7k · 143 announced

All 145 pairs on the Tactical RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Battle Brothers 2017 · $23M MENACE 2026 · EA · $15M King Arthur: Knight's Tale 2022 · $9.1M TRIANGLE STRATEGY 2022 · $5.8M Persona 5 Tactica 2023 · $2.7M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Battle Brothers older $29.99 26,118 87% 784k $23M (exactly $23,498,365) Overhype Studios
MENACE · EA $39.99 12,281 90% 368k $15M (exactly $14,733,516) Overhype Studios
King Arthur: Knight's Tale older $44.99 6,722 83% 202k $9.1M (exactly $9,072,683) NeocoreGames
TRIANGLE STRATEGY older $59.99 3,239 78% 97k $5.8M (exactly $5,829,228) Square Enix, ARTDINK
Persona 5 Tactica older $59.99 1,526 74% 46k $2.7M (exactly $2,746,342) ATLUS
Hard West 2 older $29.99 2,717 80% 82k $2.4M (exactly $2,444,485) Ice Code Games
Cobalt Core older $19.99 4,067 95% 122k $2.4M (exactly $2,438,980) Rocket Rat Games
Low Magic Age · EA older $14.99 3,342 89% 100k $1.5M (exactly $1,502,897) Low Magic Studios
Demeo x Dungeons & Dragons: Battlemarked $29.99 1,235 82% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,111,130) Resolution Games
Lost Eidolons: Veil of the Witch $24.99 1,293 81% 39k $969k (exactly $969,362) Ocean Drive Studio, Inc.
Those Who Rule $17.99 1,116 89% 33k $602k (exactly $602,305) Eldin Turulja
Veterum $19.99 204 85% 6.1k $122k (exactly $122,339) Crasleen Games
Cell Command $17.99 159 97% 4.8k $86k (exactly $85,812) Alpherior
Together in Battle $19.99 134 90% 4.0k $80k (exactly $80,360) Sinister Design
Avernum 4: Greed and Glory $19.99 133 92% 4.0k $80k (exactly $79,760) Spiderweb Software
Lost In The Open · EA $15.99 160 61% 4.8k $77k (exactly $76,752) Black Voyage Games
ANIWARS: Call of the Void · EA $12.99 184 93% 5.5k $72k (exactly $71,705) Breaker Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.