Do I ship it?

Games › Sandbox › Sandbox + Grid-Based Movement

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Grid-Based Movement Sandbox?

Sandbox + Grid-Based Movement

Of 29 developers who shipped a Grid-Based Movement Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 46 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.1k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $59k, ×94 the market median. Revenue is up 100% on the market; 46 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 100% on the market, 46 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Grid-Based Movement
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 29
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $5.9k → $1.1k → $1.3k → $327 → $1.3k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Grid-Based Movement: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 29
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.1k (exactly $1,077)
Top 25% $2.7k (exactly $2,700)
Top 5% $59k (exactly $59,226)
Developers, 2 yr 29
Released games 66
Announced 46
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 100% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Grid-Based Movement
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox, Grid-Based Movement; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Strategy
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 635 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.1k, 1 in 4 over $2.7k, 1 in 20 over $59k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. All of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 46 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

NEO Scavenger 2014 · $2.0M Mashinky 2018 · EA · $1.8M Low Magic Age 2017 · EA · $1.5M Wayward 2016 · EA · $291k Midnight Sin 2026 · $232k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
NEO Scavenger older $14.99 4,437 89% 133k $2.0M (exactly $1,995,319) Blue Bottle Games
Mashinky · EA older $24.99 2,361 84% 71k $1.8M (exactly $1,770,042) Jan Zelený
Low Magic Age · EA older $14.99 3,342 89% 100k $1.5M (exactly $1,502,897) Low Magic Studios
Wayward · EA older $7.99 1,213 86% 36k $291k (exactly $290,756) Unlok
Midnight Sin $19.99 387 82% 12k $232k (exactly $232,084) Faerin Games
Terra Randoma older $14.99 146 87% 4.4k $66k (exactly $65,656) Deniz K.
Icaria $24.99 79 75% 2.4k $59k (exactly $59,226) Blindsight Games LLC
Immortal Tactics: War of the Eternals · EA older $14.99 79 77% 2.4k $36k (exactly $35,526) Kenisoft Game Studio
RPG Stories · EA older $29.99 36 77% 1.1k $32k (exactly $32,389) Brave Alice Games
Railway Islands - Puzzle older $3.99 230 94% 6.9k $28k (exactly $27,531) Rising Moon Games
A Little Age $14.99 61 62% 1.8k $27k (exactly $27,432) Benerot
Null Hørizøn $9.99 27 85% 810 $8.1k (exactly $8,092) HopefullyHeroic
Proto Garden $14.99 13 100% 390 $5.8k (exactly $5,846) arreyne
Turn Based Boxing: Tactics - Legends Edition $9.99 14 85% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) The Slanted Room
Truck City $5.99 20 80% 600 $3.6k (exactly $3,594) Mikel Fernandez
Twilight of Bronze $15.00 6 100% 180 $2.7k (exactly $2,700) NonAverageStudio
My Cozy Room $6.99 11 54% 330 $2.3k (exactly $2,307) RedDeer.Games
Evergarden $3.99 17 23% 510 $2.0k (exactly $2,035) GridForge_Labs

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.