Do I ship it?

GamesPvPPvP + Grid-Based Movement

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvP Grid-Based Movement game?

PvP + Grid-Based Movement

Of 60 developers who shipped a PvP Grid-Based Movement game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 115 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $480, ×0.3 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50. 115 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper, while revenue is down 40% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 115 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + Grid-Based Movement
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 60
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $809 → $1.1k → $449 → $479 → $3.4k → $239 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvP + Grid-Based Movement: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 60
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $479 (exactly $479)
Top 25% $2.4k (exactly $2,395)
Top 5% $61k (exactly $61,139)
Developers, 2 yr 60
Released games 179
Announced 115
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 135% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 27%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
Grid-Based Movement
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP, Grid-Based Movement; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Combat, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Top-Down, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 1,971 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $480, 1 in 4 over $2.3k, 1 in 20 over $61k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 115 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + BasketballFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  4. + Football (American)Fair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  6. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  7. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  9. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  10. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  11. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  12. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Talisman: Digital Classic Edition older $6.99 5,557 80% 167k $1.2M (exactly $1,165,303) Nomad Games
Card-en-Ciel $24.99 856 90% 26k $642k (exactly $641,743) INTI CREATES CO., LTD.
Warside $24.99 547 68% 16k $410k (exactly $410,086) LAVABIRD
Field of Glory II: Medieval older $29.99 424 86% 13k $381k (exactly $381,473) Byzantine Games
Shovel Knight Pocket Dungeon older $19.99 518 91% 16k $311k (exactly $310,645) VINE, Yacht Club Games
Death Crown older $12.99 516 89% 15k $201k (exactly $201,085) 5WORD Team
Fire & Maneuver older $9.99 281 68% 8.4k $84k (exactly $84,216) Armchair Interactive, Targon Studios
Trolddom $9.99 204 94% 6.1k $61k (exactly $61,139) Plant Based Games
The Infinite Black 2 older $6.99 201 87% 6.0k $42k (exactly $42,150) Spellbook
Skygard Arena $14.99 93 77% 2.8k $42k (exactly $41,822) Gemelli Games
Apes Warfare $14.99 90 95% 2.7k $40k (exactly $40,473) GigaQuests, STOIC Ent.
Earth vs Mars $14.99 74 85% 2.2k $33k (exactly $33,278) Relic Entertainment
Superstar Strategy $19.99 23 95% 690 $14k (exactly $13,793) Talberon Games
Horn of the Warlord $14.99 30 96% 900 $13k (exactly $13,491) MagicKrol
Board Game Society $14.99 29 62% 870 $13k (exactly $13,041) Jetebra Games
Stratego® Online $11.99 25 96% 750 $9.0k (exactly $8,992) Wanted 5 Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.