Do I ship it?

Games › Physics › Physics + Grid-Based Movement

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Grid-Based Movement game?

Physics + Grid-Based Movement

Of 22 developers who shipped a Physics Grid-Based Movement game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $120 in the last 2 years and $180 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 14 developers shipped in the last year and 21 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 21 announced, ×1.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Grid-Based Movement
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $179 → $898 → $2.7k → $359 → $210 → $90 → $150 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Grid-Based Movement: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $120 (exactly $120)
Top 25% $299 (exactly $299)
Top 5% $2.3k (exactly $2,307)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 63
Announced 21
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Grid-Based Movement
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics, Grid-Based Movement; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, Logic, 2D Platformer
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $8.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Retro
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $8.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 148 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $120, 1 in 4 over $290, 1 in 20 over $2.3k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 21 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Heavy Spoilers RPG 2: Your best friend is actually the great demon king 2025 · $33k CHR$(143) 2021 · $18k Meet me at NooN 2022 · $16k Path of Ra 2022 · $9.6k Rayland 2021 · $7.7k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Heavy Spoilers RPG 2: Your best friend is actually the great demon king $8.99 122 93% 3.7k $33k (exactly $32,903) KSBゲームス
CHR$(143) older $7.99 75 96% 2.3k $18k (exactly $17,978) Nicolas Jean
Meet me at NooN older $9.99 55 100% 1.7k $16k (exactly $16,484) Pandaroo Interactive
Path of Ra older $4.99 64 96% 1.9k $9.6k (exactly $9,581) Oneiric Tales
Rayland older $2.99 86 91% 2.6k $7.7k (exactly $7,714) Naoka Games
Flying Soldiers older $17.99 9 100% 270 $4.9k (exactly $4,857) WildSphere
One Hundred Ways older $7.99 18 44% 540 $4.3k (exactly $4,315) Sunlight Games
Chef Survivor older $4.99 27 74% 810 $4.0k (exactly $4,042) ·
Blokker older $1.99 59 93% 1.8k $3.5k (exactly $3,522) LM Games Studio
CubePuzzle older $4.99 20 60% 600 $3.0k (exactly $2,994) RRTS
babe-lathe $6.99 11 100% 330 $2.3k (exactly $2,307) tjern
The Portsmoor Abysm $8.99 3 66% 90 $809 (exactly $809) Renons Studios
ARROW WORLD $4.59 4 100% 120 $551 (exactly $551) ATOKESHI
Beam Bound $5.99 2 100% 60 $359 (exactly $359) GhostJam Games
Yin Yang Fun $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Lao Lai Le Studios
Unblock Now $8.99 1 100% 30 $270 (exactly $270) Inlogic Games, NYX Digital Ltd
Pushle DELUXE $7.99 1 100% 30 $240 (exactly $240) GreyTGames
Magnecube $6.99 1 100% 30 $210 (exactly $210) Alejandro Ibrahim Ojea, Alana Cristina… (Alejandro Ibrahim Ojea, Alana Cristina Fernández Basquero)
Exo Chumps · EA $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Joe Kerr

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.