Do I ship it?

GamesMystery DungeonMystery Dungeon + Gothic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gothic Mystery Dungeon?

Mystery Dungeon + Gothic

Only 12 developers shipped a Gothic Mystery Dungeon in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Fortress, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.5k, ×9.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $31k, ×67 the market median. Revenue is up 25% on the market; 20 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 25% on the market, 20 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Mystery Dungeon + Gothic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.3k → $2.7k → $4.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Mystery Dungeon + Gothic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $2.0k (exactly $1,970)
Median $4.5k (exactly $4,496)
Top 25% $25k (exactly $24,588)
Top 5% $32k (exactly $31,665)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 28
Announced 20
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 25% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Gothic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Mystery Dungeon
Price point
$8.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 396 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.0k, median $4.5k, 1 in 4 over $24k, 1 in 20 over $31k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.0k. All of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 20 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Mystery Dungeon with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  2. + TacticalStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Auto BattlerFair17 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  4. + RomanceFair12 devs · median $5.8k · 10 announced
  5. + Perma DeathFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + Tactical RPGFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair34 devs · median $1.6k · 35 announced
  8. + SimulationFair57 devs · median $1.3k · 67 announced
  9. + Bullet HellFair14 devs · median $1.0k · 18 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair11 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  11. + HistoricalFair7 devs · median $719 · 10 announced
  12. + PhysicsFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced

All 116 pairs on the Mystery Dungeon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dracula: Love Kills older $9.99 298 80% 8.9k $89k (exactly $89,311) Waterlily Games
The Fortress $6.99 151 68% 4.5k $32k (exactly $31,665) Baryonyx Games
Vambrace: Dungeon Monarch $14.99 61 70% 1.8k $27k (exactly $27,432) Dvora Studio Co. Ltd.
Silent Slayer: Vault of the Vampire $19.99 41 70% 1.2k $25k (exactly $24,588) Schell Games
The Dream Labyrinth $14.99 44 81% 1.3k $20k (exactly $19,787) GGG`s
The Cabinets of Doctor Arcana older $9.99 53 92% 1.6k $16k (exactly $15,884) Monolith Graphics, The Hideout
Searching For Rest older $5.99 68 95% 2.0k $12k (exactly $12,220) Delightful Victory
Dark Frame older $5.99 59 52% 1.8k $11k (exactly $10,602) Nimos Games
Doctor Arcana and The Secret of Shadowspire $14.99 14 100% 420 $6.3k (exactly $6,296) Monolith Graphics, The Hideout
Asylum Nightmares older $10.99 19 84% 570 $6.3k (exactly $6,264) NecoPlanet
Daughter of The Void · EA $9.99 15 100% 450 $4.5k (exactly $4,496) Shaybabe
Unwanted Dungeon $7.99 18 88% 540 $4.3k (exactly $4,315) Conrado Saud, Conrado Saud
SUBMERSIBLE $8.99 10 80% 300 $2.7k (exactly $2,697) CJB Games
Directory Dungeon - File Explorer Dungeon Crawler $1.99 33 100% 990 $2.0k (exactly $1,970) JuhrJuhr
Run Eternal Depths $0.99 9 88% 270 $267 (exactly $267) Artyom Gudkov

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.