Do I ship it?

GamesTactical RPGTactical RPG + Futuristic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Futuristic Tactical RPG?

Tactical RPG + Futuristic

Of 29 developers who shipped a Futuristic Tactical RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 88 more are announced, ×6.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×4.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $340k, ×552 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 88 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 88 announced, ×6.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical RPG + Futuristic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 29
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $36k → $95k → $1.9k → $1.2k → $6.5k → $5.8k → $540 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical RPG + Futuristic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 29
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,997)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $16,546)
Top 5% $346k (exactly $346,384)
Developers, 2 yr 29
Released games 97
Announced 88
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Futuristic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Tactical RPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 3D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 66% positive over 3,697 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $340k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 8 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 88 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair24 devs · median $9.0k · 29 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  3. + Space SimFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  4. + Point & ClickFair21 devs · median $839 · 26 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair58 devs · median $599 · 49 announced
  6. + Asynchronous MultiplayerPoor odds10 devs · median $63k · 16 announced
  7. + Colony SimPoor odds16 devs · median $41k · 29 announced
  8. + SandboxPoor odds42 devs · median $20k · 102 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds61 devs · median $18k · 81 announced
  10. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $17k · 27 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds23 devs · median $10k · 38 announced
  12. + WarPoor odds80 devs · median $8.7k · 143 announced

All 145 pairs on the Tactical RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Warhammer 40,000: Chaos Gate - Daemonhunters older $44.99 11,426 76% 343k $15M (exactly $15,421,672) Complex Games
XCOM®: Chimera Squad older $9.99 20,602 71% 618k $6.2M (exactly $6,174,419) Firaxis Games
Starpoint Gemini 2 older $34.99 3,021 70% 91k $3.2M (exactly $3,171,144) Little Green Men Games
Warhammer 40,000: Mechanicus II $39.99 2,088 53% 63k $2.5M (exactly $2,504,974) Bulwark Studios
Miasma Chronicles older $34.99 2,013 79% 60k $2.1M (exactly $2,113,046) The Bearded Ladies
The Legend of Heroes: Trails through Daybreak older $59.99 1,172 91% 35k $2.1M (exactly $2,109,248) Nihon Falcom, PH3 GmbH
Star Renegades older $24.99 2,673 82% 80k $2.0M (exactly $2,003,948) Massive Damage, Inc.
Disgaea 7: Vows of the Virtueless older $59.99 913 74% 27k $1.6M (exactly $1,643,126) Nippon Ichi Software, Inc., Systemsoft… (Nippon Ichi Software, Inc., Systemsoft beta, Inc.)
Dust to the End older $11.99 1,076 78% 32k $387k (exactly $387,037) Haojoy Game, Zjoy Game
Every Day We Fight · EA $29.99 385 72% 12k $346k (exactly $346,384) Signal Space Lab
Deadeye Deepfake Simulacrum $12.99 839 98% 25k $327k (exactly $326,958) nodayshalleraseyou
VARLET $59.99 121 47% 3.6k $218k (exactly $217,764) FURYU CORPORATION
STARBITES $49.99 42 64% 1.3k $63k (exactly $62,987) IKINAGAMES
Oasis Mission: Colony Sim $14.99 91 56% 2.7k $41k (exactly $40,923) Lunar pug studio
NebuLeet $15.99 53 90% 1.6k $25k (exactly $25,424) quasilyte
Hyper Empire $11.99 46 78% 1.4k $17k (exactly $16,546) Fair Weather Studios
Void Scout $11.99 18 83% 540 $6.5k (exactly $6,475) Adversity Games Ltd.
Fractured Core $14.99 14 78% 420 $6.3k (exactly $6,296) Engram Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.