Do I ship it?

GamesOpen World Survival CraftOpen World Survival Craft + Futuristic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Futuristic Open World Survival Craft?

Open World Survival Craft + Futuristic

Only 7 developers shipped a Futuristic Open World Survival Craft in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Forever Skies, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 9 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $50k, ×37 the market's $1.3k for a 9 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $11k; 1 in 20 cleared $7.3M, ×5436 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 15 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 37.5 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 15 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World Survival Craft + Futuristic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 7

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Open World Survival Craft + Futuristic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 7
Bottom 30% $11k (exactly $10,793)
Median $50k (exactly $50,460)
Top 25% $255k (exactly $255,027)
Top 5% $7.3M (exactly $7,321,759)
Developers, 2 yr 7
Released games 26
Announced 15
Effort 9 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 150% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World Survival Craft
effort 9 / 10 · low · dedicated multiplayer servers over a huge content build
Futuristic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
9 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Open World Survival Craft
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 68% positive over 15,145 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $11k, median $50k, 1 in 4 over $250k, 1 in 20 over $7.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $11k. 15 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World Survival Craft with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $307k · 37 announced
  2. + Co-opPoor odds58 devs · median $515k · 127 announced
  3. + Online Co-OpPoor odds72 devs · median $217k · 139 announced
  4. + Immersive SimPoor odds14 devs · median $183k · 37 announced
  5. + PhysicsPoor odds8 devs · median $183k · 27 announced
  6. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  7. + MedievalPoor odds13 devs · median $154k · 37 announced
  8. + ShooterPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced
  9. + PvPPoor odds22 devs · median $125k · 56 announced
  10. + Sci-fiPoor odds32 devs · median $124k · 76 announced
  11. + Character CustomizationPoor odds34 devs · median $116k · 60 announced
  12. + RPGPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced

All 54 pairs on the Open World Survival Craft page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Forever Skies $29.99 8,138 78% 244k $7.3M (exactly $7,321,759) Far From Home
GRAV · EA older $19.99 4,451 49% 134k $2.7M (exactly $2,669,265) BitMonster, Inc.
Grand Emprise: Time Travel Survival older $19.99 807 69% 24k $484k (exactly $483,958) Tbjbu2
QANGA · EA older $19.99 554 70% 17k $332k (exactly $332,234) iolaCorp Studio
Heat Death: Survival Train · EA $11.99 709 77% 21k $255k (exactly $255,027) Mass Game Devs
Kentum $17.99 172 75% 5.2k $93k (exactly $92,828) Tlön Industries
Utopia Colony $16.99 99 63% 3.0k $50k (exactly $50,460) GridSky Studios
PostCollapse older $7.99 127 56% 3.8k $30k (exactly $30,442) Ambiera
HardPunch: Sex Plague older $11.99 51 41% 1.5k $18k (exactly $18,345) by Cassandra
INTERASTRA: Planet Survival · EA older $13.99 37 51% 1.1k $16k (exactly $15,529) T-Bull
ExoTrain · EA $14.99 24 75% 720 $11k (exactly $10,793) Harpoon Games
Wreckborn $6.99 22 95% 660 $4.6k (exactly $4,613) Krystian Dobaczewski
Stellar Archipelago $12.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Gogodinosaur

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.