Do I ship it?

GamesMystery DungeonMystery Dungeon + Futuristic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Futuristic Mystery Dungeon?

Mystery Dungeon + Futuristic

Only 18 developers shipped a Futuristic Mystery Dungeon in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, FANTASIAN Neo Dimension, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 13 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $150 in the last 2 years and $270 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 8 developers shipped in the last year and 13 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 170% on the market, 13 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Mystery Dungeon + Futuristic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.1k → $270 → $90 → $180 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Mystery Dungeon + Futuristic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $150 (exactly $150)
Top 25% $538 (exactly $538)
Top 5% $750k (exactly $749,850)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 42
Announced 13
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 170% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Futuristic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Mystery Dungeon; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, RPG
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 528 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $150, 1 in 4 over $530, 1 in 20 over $740k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 13 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Mystery Dungeon with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  2. + TacticalStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Auto BattlerFair17 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  4. + RomanceFair12 devs · median $5.8k · 10 announced
  5. + Perma DeathFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + Tactical RPGFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair34 devs · median $1.6k · 35 announced
  8. + SimulationFair57 devs · median $1.3k · 67 announced
  9. + Bullet HellFair14 devs · median $1.0k · 18 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair11 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  11. + HistoricalFair7 devs · median $719 · 10 announced
  12. + PhysicsFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced

All 116 pairs on the Mystery Dungeon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
FANTASIAN Neo Dimension $49.99 500 76% 15k $750k (exactly $749,850) Mistwalker Corporation
The Land Beneath Us older $14.99 230 79% 6.9k $103k (exactly $103,431) FairPlay Studios
Frame - Portals on Steroids older $16.99 35 91% 1.1k $18k (exactly $17,840) MechanicsDriven
Eclipse older $2.99 173 68% 5.2k $16k (exactly $15,518) MadRock
Super Geisha Neon older $8.99 19 84% 570 $5.1k (exactly $5,124) HugePixel
The Magic World older $10.99 11 72% 330 $3.6k (exactly $3,627) Flame-Dragons, Dmitriy Belonovskiy
Deleted older $9.99 10 100% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) EpiXR Games UG
SUBMERSIBLE $8.99 10 80% 300 $2.7k (exactly $2,697) CJB Games
SaveShe $69.99 1 100% 30 $2.1k (exactly $2,100) shibahuax
Purple Noise Echo older $9.99 7 100% 210 $2.1k (exactly $2,098) Ukioq
Theralite $10.99 6 100% 180 $2.0k (exactly $1,978) DualBitz
The Unknown $2.99 6 100% 180 $538 (exactly $538) GOGOIO Games
Typomon Hunter $11.99 1 0% 30 $360 (exactly $360) Esoteric Games
BlackHoleMaze $8.99 1 0% 30 $270 (exactly $270) PENGHAO
King Of The Dark Circuit $5.99 1 100% 30 $180 (exactly $180) SavicNode
NULL $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Merelab
The Haunting of Ptolemy $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) Lee E. Powell

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.