Should I ship a PvP FPS?
PvP + FPS
Of 245 developers who shipped a PvP FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 741 more are announced, ×5.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×0.8 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $9.1M, ×6089 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 741 games are announced against 144 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $270 (exactly $270) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.2k (exactly $1,199) |
| Top 25% | $54k (exactly $53,946) |
| Top 5% | $9.1M (exactly $9,121,097) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 245 |
| Released games | 1,070 |
| Announced | 741 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 36%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- PvP, FPS; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Online Co-Op
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Realistic, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 69% positive over 698,887 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $270. 7 in 10 of the 166 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 741 games are announced against 144 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + BaseballFair
- + TransportationFair
- + BasketballFair
- + Football (American)Fair
- + BikesFair
- + GolfFair
- + World War IFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + BilliardsFair
- + TennisLong shot
- + TypingLong shot
- + SpellingLong shot
Comparable games
Rust 2018 · $1.4B 
Battlefield™ 6 2025 · $620M 
DayZ 2018 · $582M 
Battlefield™ 2042 2021 · $468M 
Sea of Thieves: 2026 Edition 2020 · $386M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Rust | older | $39.99 | 1,167,920 87% | 35M | $1.4B (exactly $1,401,153,624) | Facepunch Studios |
| | Battlefield™ 6 | $69.99 | 295,442 63% | 8.9M | $620M (exactly $620,339,567) | Battlefield Studios | |
| | DayZ | older | $49.99 | 387,850 78% | 12M | $582M (exactly $581,658,645) | Bohemia Interactive |
| | Battlefield™ 2042 | older | $59.99 | 260,308 49% | 7.8M | $468M (exactly $468,476,308) | DICE |
| | Sea of Thieves: 2026 Edition | older | $39.99 | 322,072 88% | 9.7M | $386M (exactly $386,389,778) | Rare Ltd |
 | Battlefield™ V | older | $49.99 | 236,709 70% | 7.1M | $355M (exactly $354,992,487) | DICE |
 | Garry's Mod | older | $9.99 | 1,093,131 96% | 33M | $328M (exactly $327,611,361) | Facepunch Studios |
 | Dying Light | older | $24.99 | 373,413 95% | 11M | $280M (exactly $279,947,726) | Techland |
 | Battlefield™ 1 | older | $39.99 | 200,661 86% | 6.0M | $241M (exactly $240,733,002) | DICE |
 | Titanfall® 2 | older | $29.99 | 255,050 95% | 7.7M | $229M (exactly $229,468,485) | Respawn Entertainment |
 | SCUM | $44.99 | 98,554 74% | 3.0M | $133M (exactly $133,018,334) | Gamepires | |
 | Escape from Tarkov | $49.99 | 55,824 49% | 1.7M | $84M (exactly $83,719,253) | Battlestate Games | |
 | WARDOGS | · EA | $39.99 | 58,250 81% | 1.7M | $70M (exactly $69,882,525) | BULKHEAD |
 | Marathon | $39.99 | 44,919 81% | 1.3M | $54M (exactly $53,889,324) | Bungie | |
 | Call of Duty®: Black Ops 6 | $69.99 | 14,063 44% | 422k | $30M (exactly $29,528,081) | Treyarch, Raven Software, Beenox, High… (Treyarch, Raven Software, Beenox, High Moon Studios, Activision Shanghai, Sledgehammer Games, Infinity Ward, Demonware) | |
 | Pavlov | $24.99 | 37,865 88% | 1.1M | $28M (exactly $28,387,390) | Vankrupt Games | |
 | Deadside | $24.99 | 34,560 76% | 1.0M | $26M (exactly $25,909,632) | Bad Pixel | |
 | Hell Let Loose: Vietnam | $39.99 | 10,702 61% | 321k | $13M (exactly $12,839,189) | Expression Games | |
 | Liar's Bar | · EA | $6.99 | 48,708 89% | 1.5M | $10M (exactly $10,214,068) | Curve Animation |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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