Do I ship it?

GamesFootball (Soccer)Football (Soccer) + Turn-Based Strategy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based Strategy Football (Soccer) game?

Football (Soccer) + Turn-Based Strategy

Only 10 developers shipped a Turn-Based Strategy Football (Soccer) game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Boeckham's Football Manager, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced, ×5.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×0.7 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300. 27 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.4 per shipper, while revenue is down 60% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 27 announced, ×5.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Football (Soccer) + Turn-Based Strategy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Football (Soccer) + Turn-Based Strategy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 25% $3.6k (exactly $3,596)
Top 5% $9.0k (exactly $8,982)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 27
Announced 27
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Football (Soccer)
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Football (Soccer), Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 86% positive over 121 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $8.9k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. All of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 27 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Football (Soccer) with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Life SimFair10 devs · median $10k · 16 announced
  2. + EconomyFair21 devs · median $6.8k · 29 announced
  3. + Local MultiplayerLong shot32 devs · median $899 · 40 announced
  4. + Local Co-OpLong shot17 devs · median $839 · 22 announced
  5. + Football (American)Long shot15 devs · median $719 · 9 announced
  6. + ArcadeLong shot64 devs · median $539 · 84 announced
  7. + 4 Player LocalPoor odds14 devs · median $15k · 27 announced
  8. + Character CustomizationPoor odds32 devs · median $3.8k · 54 announced
  9. + Turn-Based TacticsPoor odds14 devs · median $3.6k · 30 announced
  10. + AdventurePoor odds15 devs · median $3.3k · 13 announced
  11. + Resource ManagementPoor odds15 devs · median $3.1k · 30 announced
  12. + ManagementPoor odds47 devs · median $2.7k · 83 announced

All 32 pairs on the Football (Soccer) page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Football, Tactics & Glory older $24.99 3,998 87% 120k $3.0M (exactly $2,997,301) Creoteam
GOAL! The Club Manager · EA older $29.99 364 33% 11k $327k (exactly $327,491) 2tainment
Club Manager 2016 older $19.99 66 50% 2.0k $40k (exactly $39,580) BigBlaze Games
Ganbare! Super Strikers older $9.99 85 85% 2.6k $25k (exactly $25,474) rese
Boeckham's Football Manager $4.99 60 91% 1.8k $9.0k (exactly $8,982) Bitbeast Games
GOOOAL older $2.99 92 88% 2.8k $8.3k (exactly $8,252) SmoochGM
Tactics Unlimited · EA $19.99 13 30% 390 $7.8k (exactly $7,796) 2tainment
Goaldeck $9.99 12 91% 360 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) Pro Nobis Studio
Crazy Robot Ball $5.99 18 100% 540 $3.2k (exactly $3,235) Blue Band Studio
TableTop Soccer older $0.99 94 76% 2.8k $2.8k (exactly $2,792) Dancing Developers
Tactilite $4.99 7 100% 210 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) Eloori Interactive
My Scout Life $4.00 6 83% 180 $720 (exactly $720) Rakun Interactive
Hangman Pro · EA $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Hard Shark Games
The Killer Pass: Season 1 $2.99 2 100% 60 $179 (exactly $179) Hi-Develop
Retro Soccer Manager Sim 89 · EA $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) NEXUS ODYSSEY HOLDINGS LLC
桌上足球 TableSoccer $0.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) YongyeGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.