Do I ship it?

GamesFootball (Soccer)Football (Soccer) + Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Adventure Football (Soccer) game?

Football (Soccer) + Adventure

Only 15 developers shipped an Adventure Football (Soccer) game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, despelote, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 13 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.3k, ×2.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $450k, ×304 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 13 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 13 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Football (Soccer) + Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $27k → $4.3k → $3.3k → $16k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Football (Soccer) + Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $718 (exactly $718)
Median $3.3k (exactly $3,293)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $16,484)
Top 5% $455k (exactly $454,647)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 39
Announced 13
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Football (Soccer)
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Football (Soccer), Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 1,462 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $3.3k, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $450k.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 9 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 13 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Football (Soccer) with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Life SimFair10 devs · median $10k · 16 announced
  2. + EconomyFair21 devs · median $6.8k · 29 announced
  3. + Local MultiplayerLong shot32 devs · median $899 · 40 announced
  4. + Local Co-OpLong shot17 devs · median $839 · 22 announced
  5. + Football (American)Long shot15 devs · median $719 · 9 announced
  6. + ArcadeLong shot64 devs · median $539 · 84 announced
  7. + 4 Player LocalPoor odds14 devs · median $15k · 27 announced
  8. + Character CustomizationPoor odds32 devs · median $3.8k · 54 announced
  9. + Turn-Based TacticsPoor odds14 devs · median $3.6k · 30 announced
  10. + Resource ManagementPoor odds15 devs · median $3.1k · 30 announced
  11. + ManagementPoor odds47 devs · median $2.7k · 83 announced
  12. + StrategyPoor odds49 devs · median $1.6k · 84 announced

All 32 pairs on the Football (Soccer) page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Bang-On Balls: Chronicles older $24.99 4,334 96% 130k $3.2M (exactly $3,249,200) Exit Plan Games
despelote $14.99 1,011 95% 30k $455k (exactly $454,647) Julián Cordero, Sebastian Valbuena
Nancy Drew®: Warnings at Waverly Academy older $14.99 335 90% 10k $151k (exactly $150,650) HeR Interactive
Fantasista Asuka $19.99 177 87% 5.3k $106k (exactly $106,147) qureate, Orgesta Inc.
Soccer Story older $19.99 123 53% 3.7k $74k (exactly $73,763) PanicBarn
Footgun: Underground older $14.99 102 85% 3.1k $46k (exactly $45,869) Turtle Knight Games
Alpaca Ball: Allstars older $19.99 59 91% 1.8k $35k (exactly $35,382) Salt Castle Studio
Tiny Football older $9.99 90 72% 2.7k $27k (exactly $26,973) Martyn Bissett
Football Drama older $11.99 72 58% 2.2k $26k (exactly $25,898) Open Lab Games, Demigiant
Ascending Inferno $10.99 55 98% 1.7k $18k (exactly $18,134) Oppolyon Studios
The Beautiful Game - Book One $9.99 55 92% 1.7k $16k (exactly $16,484) Daggum Games
Wild Rumble $14.99 33 87% 990 $15k (exactly $14,840) Mean Mink
Regista: Reign Your Football Club $4.99 68 67% 2.0k $10k (exactly $10,180) dicehit
Lucky Goal $4.99 29 96% 870 $4.3k (exactly $4,341) Woondas
You Suck At Football $4.99 22 59% 660 $3.3k (exactly $3,293) Gorka Games
Road To Glory $5.90 7 28% 210 $1.2k (exactly $1,239) UPLAY Online
MY WIFE IS A FOOTBALL COACH $4.99 5 0% 150 $748 (exactly $748) Mizuki Kabiwani

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.