Do I ship it?

Games › Football (Soccer) › Football (Soccer) + Physics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Football (Soccer) game?

Football (Soccer) + Physics

Of 49 developers who shipped a Physics Football (Soccer) game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 62 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $180 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build. 28 developers shipped in the last year and 62 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 62 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Football (Soccer) + Physics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 49
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $475 → $653 → $240 → $449 → $1.3k → $719 → $150 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Football (Soccer) + Physics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 49
Bottom 30% $30 (exactly $30)
Median $180 (exactly $180)
Top 25% $1.2k (exactly $1,197)
Top 5% $59k (exactly $59,041)
Developers, 2 yr 49
Released games 128
Announced 62
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Football (Soccer)
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Football (Soccer), Physics; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Sports, PvP, Action
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $10.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Colorful, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $10.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 1,767 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $180, 1 in 4 over $1.1k, 1 in 20 over $59k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 8 in 10 of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 62 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Football (Soccer) with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Life SimFair10 devs · median $10k · 16 announced
  2. + EconomyFair21 devs · median $6.8k · 29 announced
  3. + Local MultiplayerLong shot32 devs · median $899 · 40 announced
  4. + Local Co-OpLong shot17 devs · median $839 · 22 announced
  5. + Football (American)Long shot15 devs · median $719 · 9 announced
  6. + ArcadeLong shot64 devs · median $539 · 84 announced
  7. + 4 Player LocalPoor odds14 devs · median $15k · 27 announced
  8. + Character CustomizationPoor odds32 devs · median $3.8k · 54 announced
  9. + Turn-Based TacticsPoor odds14 devs · median $3.6k · 30 announced
  10. + AdventurePoor odds15 devs · median $3.3k · 13 announced
  11. + Resource ManagementPoor odds15 devs · median $3.1k · 30 announced
  12. + ManagementPoor odds47 devs · median $2.7k · 83 announced

All 32 pairs on the Football (Soccer) page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Bang-On Balls: Chronicles 2023 · $3.2M despelote 2025 · $455k Motion Soccer PRO 2025 · $134k Toasterball 2023 · $97k Super Arcade Football 2021 · $64k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Bang-On Balls: Chronicles older $24.99 4,334 96% 130k $3.2M (exactly $3,249,200) Exit Plan Games
despelote $14.99 1,011 95% 30k $455k (exactly $454,647) Julián Cordero, Sebastian Valbuena
Motion Soccer PRO $19.99 223 79% 6.7k $134k (exactly $133,733) Ivanovich Games
Toasterball older $9.99 324 96% 9.7k $97k (exactly $97,103) Les Crafteurs
Super Arcade Football older $12.99 164 68% 4.9k $64k (exactly $63,911) OutOfTheBit Ltd
World of Football · EA $9.99 197 81% 5.9k $59k (exactly $59,041) Vault Game Studio
Final Soccer VR older $19.99 95 77% 2.9k $57k (exactly $56,971) Ivanovich Games
Turbo Sliders Unlimited older $14.99 125 88% 3.8k $56k (exactly $56,212) Antti Mannisto
Golazo! Soccer League older $8.99 199 80% 6.0k $54k (exactly $53,670) Purple Tree S R L
No Fair Play older $2.99 452 90% 14k $41k (exactly $40,544) Self MADev
Pimbolas $9.99 89 94% 2.7k $27k (exactly $26,673) Nano Knight Studio
Ascending Inferno $10.99 55 98% 1.7k $18k (exactly $18,134) Oppolyon Studios
Beat The Champions $19.99 26 73% 780 $16k (exactly $15,592) Purple Tree S R L, Whiteboard Games
Drunken FC · EA $6.99 71 80% 2.1k $15k (exactly $14,889) Sloppy Games, Red Herring Labs
GOKA Street · EA $4.99 44 86% 1.3k $6.6k (exactly $6,587) Blay Games
Lucky Goal $4.99 29 96% 870 $4.3k (exactly $4,341) Woondas
You Suck At Football $4.99 22 59% 660 $3.3k (exactly $3,293) Gorka Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.