Do I ship it?

GamesFMVFMV + Zombies

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Zombie FMV?

FMV + Zombies

Of 21 developers who shipped a Zombie FMV in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 11 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $0 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 15 developers shipped in the last year and 11 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 11 announced, ×0.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FMV + Zombies
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for FMV + Zombies: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $0 (exactly $0)
Top 25% $2.1k (exactly $2,097)
Top 5% $80k (exactly $80,020)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 42
Announced 11
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 150% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 2%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

FMV
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Zombies
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
FMV; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, Adventure, Choose Your Own Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, First-Person, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 3,778 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $0, 1 in 4 over $2.0k, 1 in 20 over $80k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 7 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 11 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FMV with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SurvivalStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Post-apocalypticStrong odds8 devs · median $74k · 5 announced
  3. + StrategyStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  4. + Multiple EndingsStrong odds128 devs · median $65k · 93 announced
  5. + Immersive SimStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  6. + Choices MatterStrong odds108 devs · median $58k · 91 announced
  7. + Dating SimStrong odds148 devs · median $57k · 111 announced
  8. + RomanceStrong odds101 devs · median $56k · 63 announced
  9. + SimulationStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  10. + JRPGStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  11. + Visual NovelStrong odds166 devs · median $54k · 146 announced
  12. + RPGStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced

All 63 pairs on the FMV page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SubZero $9.99 2,719 92% 82k $815k (exactly $814,884) Joy Media Limited
Lustful Dead 🔞 $9.99 267 49% 8.0k $80k (exactly $80,020) BanzaiProject
Survivor's Notes $6.99 352 91% 11k $74k (exactly $73,814) MYSTERY CROWN, YESPLAY
HITLER: BDSM BUNKER older $9.99 164 81% 4.9k $49k (exactly $49,151) Adolf Games
Only Whores Survive 🔞 $9.99 148 61% 4.4k $44k (exactly $44,356) BanzaiProject
Punishment NyanNyan R $8.99 163 95% 4.9k $44k (exactly $43,961) ぬるぬる坊主
108 Silly Ways to Die $10.99 115 73% 3.5k $38k (exactly $37,916) SEED Studio
Killing Time (Classic) older $9.99 103 71% 3.1k $31k (exactly $30,869) The 3DO Company
Iron Disco older $9.99 101 68% 3.0k $30k (exactly $30,270) Towndarktales
Corpse Killer - 25th Anniversary Edition older $14.99 55 69% 1.7k $25k (exactly $24,734) Screaming Villains
One Rotten Oath $6.99 10 100% 300 $2.1k (exactly $2,097) Piotr Bunkowski
OKeverything:Evil Boy 1001 Sinful Reincarnations $9.99 2 0% 60 $599 (exactly $599) X.OKE.FAN
My Kirin kidney and my beloved teachers $9.99 1 0% 30 $300 (exactly $300) OKEdragon
My Kirin kidney and my beloved teachers 2 $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) OKEdragon

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.