Do I ship it?

GamesSurvivalSurvival + FMV

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an FMV Survival game?

Survival + FMV

Only 14 developers shipped an FMV Survival game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, 荒岛求生:逃出美女岛, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 10 more are announced.

Verdict: strong odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $74k, ×118 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 7 in 10 cleared $16k. Revenue is up 65% on the market; 10 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×1.1 per shipper.

Deciding numbers: median 117.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 65% on the market, 10 announced, ×1.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + FMV
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.0k → $80k → $316k → $5.1k (still earning) → $195k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + FMV: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $16k (exactly $16,484)
Median $74k (exactly $73,814)
Top 25% $254k (exactly $253,603)
Top 5% $348k (exactly $347,952)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 40
Announced 10
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 65% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
FMV
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival, FMV
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 6,950 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $17k, median $74k, 1 in 4 over $250k, 1 in 20 over $340k.

3 in 10 developers made under $17k. 3 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 10 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  2. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  3. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  4. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  5. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  6. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  7. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  8. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  9. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  10. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  11. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced
  12. + SteampunkPoor odds10 devs · median $78k · 49 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Bloodshore older $14.99 826 68% 25k $371k (exactly $371,452) Wales Interactive, Good Gate Media, Way… (Wales Interactive, Good Gate Media, Wayout Pictures, Posterity Entertainment)
荒岛求生:逃出美女岛 $9.99 1,161 93% 35k $348k (exactly $347,952) 翱游科技AlbatrooGame, 荒岛互动娱乐
Blood Money: Lethal Eden $8.99 1,262 91% 38k $340k (exactly $340,361) 碧火互娱
Misty Judgment $8.99 1,170 92% 35k $316k (exactly $315,549) 次元边界
Evil School $7.99 1,058 92% 32k $254k (exactly $253,603) CineGame Interactive
Inner Scales 1:Choice $6.99 929 84% 28k $195k (exactly $194,811) MYSTERY CROWN
晨昏线 $9.99 427 76% 13k $128k (exactly $127,972) Enter Games
Lustful Dead 🔞 $9.99 267 49% 8.0k $80k (exactly $80,020) BanzaiProject
Survivor's Notes $6.99 352 91% 11k $74k (exactly $73,814) MYSTERY CROWN, YESPLAY
HITLER: BDSM BUNKER older $9.99 164 81% 4.9k $49k (exactly $49,151) Adolf Games
Back:Fade $6.99 191 76% 5.7k $40k (exactly $40,053) MYSTERY CROWN
林葬屋前传:冥声 $6.99 133 83% 4.0k $28k (exactly $27,890) MYSTERY CROWN, 火蜥蜴文化

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.