Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + FMV

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an FMV Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + FMV

Of 112 developers who shipped an FMV Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 58 more are announced.

Verdict: strong odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $63k, ×42 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 7 in 10 cleared $17k. Revenue is up 220% on the market; 58 games are announced against 67 developers who shipped in the last year, ×0.9 per shipper.

Deciding numbers: median 42.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 220% on the market, 58 announced, ×0.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + FMV
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 112
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $24k → $18k → $86k → $68k → $61k → $175k → $63k (still earning) → $74k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + FMV: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 112
Bottom 30% $18k (exactly $17,810)
Median $63k (exactly $62,958)
Top 25% $229k (exactly $228,674)
Top 5% $1.2M (exactly $1,201,149)
Developers, 2 yr 112
Released games 245
Announced 58
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 220% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
FMV
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim, FMV; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Interactive Fiction, RPG, Multiple Endings
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Cinematic, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 47,277 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $18k, median $63k, 1 in 4 over $220k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $18k. 3 in 10 of the 64 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 58 games are announced against 67 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  2. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  3. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  4. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  5. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  6. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  7. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  8. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  9. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  10. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  11. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced
  12. + Time TravelFair20 devs · median $3.7k · 10 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Love Is All Around older $9.99 36,203 93% 1.1M $11M (exactly $10,850,039) intiny
Road to Empress Ⅱ $18.00 7,773 80% 233k $4.2M (exactly $4,197,420) New One Studio
The Operator older $13.99 8,515 91% 255k $3.6M (exactly $3,573,746) Bureau 81
Five Hearts Under One Roof $19.99 5,881 91% 176k $3.5M (exactly $3,526,836) Storytaco
Road to Empress I $8.49 11,829 86% 355k $3.0M (exactly $3,012,846) New One Studio
Mandate Of Heaven $14.99 5,446 91% 163k $2.4M (exactly $2,449,066) 木焱工作室
Breakout 13 older $9.99 6,899 87% 207k $2.1M (exactly $2,067,630) ALT Lab
Succubus Cafe older $29.99 2,260 89% 68k $2.0M (exactly $2,033,322) MIGI STUDIO
Knowledge, or know Lady older $6.99 8,501 95% 255k $1.8M (exactly $1,782,660) 蒸汽满满工作室
The Three Kingdoms: Rebirth $19.99 2,564 91% 77k $1.5M (exactly $1,537,631) 玛奇阿朵互娱科技, 山与海工作室
Five Hearts Under One Roof season2 $22.99 2,149 96% 64k $1.5M (exactly $1,482,165) Storytaco
Hello Love: 18 Again $19.99 2,075 92% 62k $1.2M (exactly $1,244,378) 念念而忘(Echofall Studio)
Shao Song I $14.99 2,671 81% 80k $1.2M (exactly $1,201,149) 互动之星, 猫眼娱乐
Love is All Around 2 $9.99 3,749 83% 112k $1.1M (exactly $1,123,575) intiny
美女,请别影响我成仙 $10.99 3,140 93% 94k $1.0M (exactly $1,035,258) 蒸汽满满工作室

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.