Do I ship it?

GamesFMVFMV + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic FMV?

FMV + Post-apocalyptic

Only 8 developers shipped a Post-apocalyptic FMV in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, SubZero, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 5 more are announced.

Verdict: strong odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $74k, ×118 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 7 in 10 cleared $44k. Revenue is up 135% on the market; 5 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×1.0 per shipper.

Deciding numbers: median 117.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 135% on the market, 5 announced, ×1.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FMV + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for FMV + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $44k (exactly $44,356)
Median $74k (exactly $73,814)
Top 25% $148k (exactly $147,551)
Top 5% $815k (exactly $814,884)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 31
Announced 5
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 135% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

FMV
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
FMV
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 21,834 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $45k, median $74k, 1 in 4 over $140k, 1 in 20 over $810k.

3 in 10 developers made under $45k. 5 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FMV with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SurvivalStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + StrategyStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  3. + Multiple EndingsStrong odds128 devs · median $65k · 93 announced
  4. + Immersive SimStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  5. + Choices MatterStrong odds108 devs · median $58k · 91 announced
  6. + Dating SimStrong odds148 devs · median $57k · 111 announced
  7. + RomanceStrong odds101 devs · median $56k · 63 announced
  8. + SimulationStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  9. + JRPGStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  10. + Visual NovelStrong odds166 devs · median $54k · 146 announced
  11. + RPGStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  12. + Life SimStrong odds38 devs · median $54k · 21 announced

All 63 pairs on the FMV page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Command & Conquer 3 Tiberium Wars™ older $6.96 8,777 89% 263k $1.8M (exactly $1,832,638) EA Los Angeles
Command & Conquer™ 3: Kane’s Wrath older $6.96 5,499 93% 165k $1.1M (exactly $1,148,191) EA Los Angeles
SubZero $9.99 2,719 92% 82k $815k (exactly $814,884) Joy Media Limited
The Bunker older $14.99 1,644 69% 49k $739k (exactly $739,307) Splendy Interactive, Wales Interactive
The Light Remake older $4.99 1,462 87% 44k $219k (exactly $218,861) Носков Сергей
BEAUTIFUL DESOLATION older $12.99 517 75% 16k $201k (exactly $201,475) THE BROTHERHOOD
SLEEP AWAKE $29.99 164 71% 4.9k $148k (exactly $147,551) EYES OUT, LLC.
Sex Desert: Mad Lust $9.99 323 61% 9.7k $97k (exactly $96,803) Carnality INC
Survivor's Notes $6.99 352 91% 11k $74k (exactly $73,814) MYSTERY CROWN, YESPLAY
Time Space Rebuild $4.99 377 76% 11k $56k (exactly $56,437) INNOVATION DREAM
Only Whores Survive 🔞 $9.99 148 61% 4.4k $44k (exactly $44,356) BanzaiProject
One Rotten Oath $6.99 10 100% 300 $2.1k (exactly $2,097) Piotr Bunkowski
US Visual Novel $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Us Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.