Do I ship it?

GamesFMVFMV + Romance

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Romance FMV?

FMV + Romance

Of 101 developers who shipped a Romance FMV in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 63 more are announced.

Verdict: strong odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $56k, ×118 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 7 in 10 cleared $14k. Revenue is up 85% on the market; 63 games are announced against 59 developers who shipped in the last year, ×1.1 per shipper.

Deciding numbers: median 118.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 85% on the market, 63 announced, ×1.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FMV + Romance
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 101
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $12k → $18k → $52k → $62k → $48k → $117k → $54k (still earning) → $76k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FMV + Romance: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 101
Bottom 30% $15k (exactly $14,889)
Median $56k (exactly $56,049)
Top 25% $143k (exactly $143,410)
Top 5% $610k (exactly $609,945)
Developers, 2 yr 101
Released games 197
Announced 63
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 85% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 2%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

FMV
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Romance
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
FMV; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Dating Sim, Multiple Endings, RPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, First-Person, Emotional
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 68,414 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $15k, median $56k, 1 in 4 over $140k, 1 in 20 over $600k.

3 in 10 developers made under $15k. 3 in 10 of the 50 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 63 games are announced against 59 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FMV with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SurvivalStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Post-apocalypticStrong odds8 devs · median $74k · 5 announced
  3. + StrategyStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  4. + Multiple EndingsStrong odds128 devs · median $65k · 93 announced
  5. + Immersive SimStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  6. + Choices MatterStrong odds108 devs · median $58k · 91 announced
  7. + Dating SimStrong odds148 devs · median $57k · 111 announced
  8. + SimulationStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  9. + JRPGStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  10. + Visual NovelStrong odds166 devs · median $54k · 146 announced
  11. + RPGStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  12. + Life SimStrong odds38 devs · median $54k · 21 announced

All 63 pairs on the FMV page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Love Is All Around older $9.99 36,203 93% 1.1M $11M (exactly $10,850,039) intiny
Revenge on gold diggers $6.99 46,610 80% 1.4M $9.8M (exactly $9,774,117) 前方工作室
Five Hearts Under One Roof $19.99 5,881 91% 176k $3.5M (exactly $3,526,836) Storytaco
Knowledge, or know Lady older $6.99 8,501 95% 255k $1.8M (exactly $1,782,660) 蒸汽满满工作室
The Three Kingdoms: Rebirth $19.99 2,564 91% 77k $1.5M (exactly $1,537,631) 玛奇阿朵互娱科技, 山与海工作室
Five Hearts Under One Roof season2 $22.99 2,149 96% 64k $1.5M (exactly $1,482,165) Storytaco
Hello Love: 18 Again $19.99 2,075 92% 62k $1.2M (exactly $1,244,378) 念念而忘(Echofall Studio)
失业了,我获得了亿万游戏财产! older $12.99 2,787 86% 84k $1.1M (exactly $1,086,094) Bolingogames
Five Dates older $14.99 2,097 87% 63k $943k (exactly $943,021) Wales Interactive, Good Gate Media
Rebooted Fate $14.99 1,846 95% 55k $830k (exactly $830,146) Jilin miaomiao, 山与海工作室
Love is All Around: Echoes of Yesterday $10.99 1,850 81% 56k $610k (exactly $609,945) intiny
极速营救 $9.99 1,860 86% 56k $557k (exactly $557,442) 优映文化, 想象颗粒
我只是想让她们都幸福 $9.99 1,837 97% 55k $551k (exactly $550,549) 心宿影视
Heartbeat in Thailand $9.99 1,742 97% 52k $522k (exactly $522,077) RainbowGame

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.