Do I ship it?

GamesFMVFMV + Life Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an FMV Life Sim?

FMV + Life Sim

Of 38 developers who shipped an FMV Life Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced.

Verdict: strong odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $54k, ×113 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 7 in 10 cleared $13k. Revenue is up 95% on the market; 21 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×1.0 per shipper.

Deciding numbers: median 112.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 95% on the market, 21 announced, ×1.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FMV + Life Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 38
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $10k → $40k → $44k → $49k → $15k → $111k → $63k (still earning) → $18k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FMV + Life Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 38
Bottom 30% $13k (exactly $13,193)
Median $54k (exactly $53,514)
Top 25% $117k (exactly $117,432)
Top 5% $452k (exactly $451,948)
Developers, 2 yr 38
Released games 83
Announced 21
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 95% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

FMV
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Life Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
FMV, Life Sim; all of the top 25% also carry Immersive Sim, Multiple Endings, Simulation
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, First-Person, Emotional
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 11,334 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $14k, median $54k, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $450k.

3 in 10 developers made under $14k. 3 in 10 of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 21 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FMV with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SurvivalStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Post-apocalypticStrong odds8 devs · median $74k · 5 announced
  3. + StrategyStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  4. + Multiple EndingsStrong odds128 devs · median $65k · 93 announced
  5. + Immersive SimStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  6. + Choices MatterStrong odds108 devs · median $58k · 91 announced
  7. + Dating SimStrong odds148 devs · median $57k · 111 announced
  8. + RomanceStrong odds101 devs · median $56k · 63 announced
  9. + SimulationStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  10. + JRPGStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  11. + Visual NovelStrong odds166 devs · median $54k · 146 announced
  12. + RPGStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced

All 63 pairs on the FMV page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Love is All Around 2 $9.99 3,749 83% 112k $1.1M (exactly $1,123,575) intiny
Vanity Fair: The Pursuit older $6.99 4,014 87% 120k $842k (exactly $841,736) 木焱工作室
恋爱单选题 older $10.99 2,424 81% 73k $799k (exactly $799,193) 无忧传媒
Motesolo : No Girlfriend Since Birth older $22.99 1,011 86% 30k $697k (exactly $697,287) INDICAVA INTERACTIVE
Super Seducer : How to Talk to Girls older $12.99 1,602 83% 48k $624k (exactly $624,299) RLR Training Inc
恋爱吗?我家猫会后空翻 $9.99 1,508 96% 45k $452k (exactly $451,948) 光循花火工作室
Blood Money: Lethal Eden $8.99 1,262 91% 38k $340k (exactly $340,361) 碧火互娱
Cellveillance $15.99 531 85% 16k $255k (exactly $254,721) KARMAGAME HK LIMITED
Love in Summer $9.99 793 84% 24k $238k (exactly $237,662) intiny
Such a guy $12.99 477 95% 14k $186k (exactly $185,887) SUCH ONE STUDIO
I've Fallen For You! $7.99 729 88% 22k $175k (exactly $174,741) LOVE MOOD STUDIO LIMITED
我的机器人女友 $4.99 911 90% 27k $136k (exactly $136,377) 时娱游戏
Roommates, Romance, and Ringing Hearts $11.99 346 93% 10k $124k (exactly $124,456) TV Asahi Corporation, Aiming Inc.
你好!我们还有场恋爱没谈-番外篇 $3.99 1,028 93% 31k $123k (exactly $123,052) 念念而忘(Echofall Studio)

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.