Do I ship it?

GamesFMVFMV + Psychological Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological-Horror FMV?

FMV + Psychological Horror

Of 33 developers who shipped a Psychological-Horror FMV in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 56 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.9k, ×21 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $330k, ×712 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 56 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 20.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 56 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FMV + Psychological Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 33
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2M → $35k → $68k → $38k → $31k → $5.1k (still earning) → $9.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FMV + Psychological Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 33
Bottom 30% $1.9k (exactly $1,946)
Median $9.9k (exactly $9,893)
Top 25% $74k (exactly $73,814)
Top 5% $338k (exactly $338,174)
Developers, 2 yr 33
Released games 111
Announced 56
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 120% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

FMV
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Psychological Horror
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
FMV; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Simulation, Immersive Sim
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 6,659 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.0k, median $9.9k, 1 in 4 over $73k, 1 in 20 over $330k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.0k. 4 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 56 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FMV with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SurvivalStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Post-apocalypticStrong odds8 devs · median $74k · 5 announced
  3. + StrategyStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  4. + Multiple EndingsStrong odds128 devs · median $65k · 93 announced
  5. + Immersive SimStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  6. + Choices MatterStrong odds108 devs · median $58k · 91 announced
  7. + Dating SimStrong odds148 devs · median $57k · 111 announced
  8. + RomanceStrong odds101 devs · median $56k · 63 announced
  9. + SimulationStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  10. + JRPGStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  11. + Visual NovelStrong odds166 devs · median $54k · 146 announced
  12. + RPGStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced

All 63 pairs on the FMV page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mirror 2: Project X · EA older $1.99 111,251 24% 3.3M $6.6M (exactly $6,641,685) KAGAMI Ⅱ WORKs
Her Story older $9.99 8,367 89% 251k $2.5M (exactly $2,507,590) Sam Barlow
Breakout 13 older $9.99 6,899 87% 207k $2.1M (exactly $2,067,630) ALT Lab
Succubus Cafe older $29.99 2,260 89% 68k $2.0M (exactly $2,033,322) MIGI STUDIO
Stories Untold older $9.99 4,357 86% 131k $1.3M (exactly $1,305,793) Screen Burn
Eclipsium $12.99 3,306 91% 99k $1.3M (exactly $1,288,348) Housefire
Home Safety Hotline older $14.99 2,763 90% 83k $1.2M (exactly $1,242,521) Night Signal Entertainment
STASIS: BONE TOTEM older $19.99 2,025 93% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,214,392) THE BROTHERHOOD
Command & Conquer™ 4 Tiberian Twilight older $6.96 4,832 16% 145k $1.0M (exactly $1,008,922) EA Los Angeles
Smile For Me older $12.99 2,082 98% 62k $811k (exactly $811,355) LimboLane
Dead Take $14.99 752 87% 23k $338k (exactly $338,174) Surgent Studios
Summer’s Heartbeat $19.99 336 92% 10k $201k (exactly $201,499) Storytaco
SLEEP AWAKE $29.99 164 71% 4.9k $148k (exactly $147,551) EYES OUT, LLC.
The Salesman $4.99 724 82% 22k $108k (exactly $108,383) Backstab Industries
规则怪谈:盛崖小区 $10.99 288 71% 8.6k $95k (exactly $94,954) ZHUYUAN Co.,Ltd
Lustful Dead 🔞 $9.99 267 49% 8.0k $80k (exactly $80,020) BanzaiProject
Heart of the Forest $12.99 202 70% 6.1k $79k (exactly $78,719) Trapped Predator
Survivor's Notes $6.99 352 91% 11k $74k (exactly $73,814) MYSTERY CROWN, YESPLAY
Hacked: The Streamer $8.49 268 73% 8.0k $68k (exactly $68,260) Button Interactive, NAISU

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.