Do I ship it?

Games › FMV › FMV + Psychological

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological FMV?

FMV + Psychological

Of 22 developers who shipped a Psychological FMV in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 40 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $40k, ×84 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $550k, ×1174 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 40 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 84.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 40 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FMV + Psychological
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $61k → $45k → $536 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FMV + Psychological: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $2.2k (exactly $2,246)
Median $40k (exactly $40,053)
Top 25% $128k (exactly $127,972)
Top 5% $557k (exactly $557,442)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 58
Announced 40
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

FMV
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Psychological
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
FMV; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Choose Your Own Adventure, Dating Sim, Interactive Fiction
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Cinematic, Emotional
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 52,582 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.3k, median $40k, 1 in 4 over $120k, 1 in 20 over $550k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.3k. 3 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 40 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FMV with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SurvivalStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Post-apocalypticStrong odds8 devs · median $74k · 5 announced
  3. + StrategyStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  4. + Multiple EndingsStrong odds128 devs · median $65k · 93 announced
  5. + Immersive SimStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  6. + Choices MatterStrong odds108 devs · median $58k · 91 announced
  7. + Dating SimStrong odds148 devs · median $57k · 111 announced
  8. + RomanceStrong odds101 devs · median $56k · 63 announced
  9. + SimulationStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  10. + JRPGStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  11. + Visual NovelStrong odds166 devs · median $54k · 146 announced
  12. + RPGStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced

All 63 pairs on the FMV page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Inscryption 2021 · $81M Revenge on gold diggers 2025 · $9.8M She Sees Red - Interactive Movie 2019 · $657k Super Seducer : How to Talk to Girls 2018 · $624k 极速营救 2025 · $557k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Inscryption older $19.99 135,017 96% 4.1M $81M (exactly $80,969,695) Daniel Mullins Games
Revenge on gold diggers $6.99 46,610 80% 1.4M $9.8M (exactly $9,774,117) 前方工作室
She Sees Red - Interactive Movie older $7.99 2,739 77% 82k $657k (exactly $656,538) Rhinotales
Super Seducer : How to Talk to Girls older $12.99 1,602 83% 48k $624k (exactly $624,299) RLR Training Inc
极速营救 $9.99 1,860 86% 56k $557k (exactly $557,442) 优映文化, 想象颗粒
SIMULACRA older $4.99 3,454 92% 104k $517k (exactly $517,064) Kaigan Games OÜ
我打不过漂亮的她们 $10.99 1,111 95% 33k $366k (exactly $366,297) 想象颗粒
Transference™ older $24.99 475 69% 14k $356k (exactly $356,108) Ubisoft
Dead Take $14.99 752 87% 23k $338k (exactly $338,174) Surgent Studios
I Saw Black Clouds older $14.99 606 61% 18k $273k (exactly $272,518) Ghost Dog Films
Cellveillance $15.99 531 85% 16k $255k (exactly $254,721) KARMAGAME HK LIMITED
晨昏线 $9.99 427 76% 13k $128k (exactly $127,972) Enter Games
The Salesman $4.99 724 82% 22k $108k (exactly $108,383) Backstab Industries
Trilogy of the Moon $10.99 184 84% 5.5k $61k (exactly $60,665) SKYPLUS
Master of Love $10.99 170 82% 5.1k $56k (exactly $56,049) Root3Games
看不见的我们 $6.99 213 92% 6.4k $45k (exactly $44,666) MYSTERY CROWN, 火蜥蜴文化

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.