Do I ship it?

GamesFMVFMV + Point & Click

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Point & Click FMV?

FMV + Point & Click

Of 37 developers who shipped a Point & Click FMV in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 51 more are announced, ×2.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.8k, ×12 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $330k, ×710 the market median. Revenue is up 460% on the market; 51 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 12.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 460% on the market, 51 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FMV + Point & Click
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 37
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $22k → $13k → $79k → $3.9k → $4.6k → $14k → $27k (still earning) → $16k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FMV + Point & Click: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 37
Bottom 30% $1.8k (exactly $1,796)
Median $5.8k (exactly $5,838)
Top 25% $52k (exactly $52,448)
Top 5% $337k (exactly $337,275)
Developers, 2 yr 37
Released games 182
Announced 51
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 460% on the market, supply 110% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

FMV
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Point & Click
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
FMV, Point & Click; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, Adventure, Interactive Fiction
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Cinematic, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 5,416 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $5.8k, 1 in 4 over $52k, 1 in 20 over $330k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 6 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 51 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FMV with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SurvivalStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Post-apocalypticStrong odds8 devs · median $74k · 5 announced
  3. + StrategyStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  4. + Multiple EndingsStrong odds128 devs · median $65k · 93 announced
  5. + Immersive SimStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  6. + Choices MatterStrong odds108 devs · median $58k · 91 announced
  7. + Dating SimStrong odds148 devs · median $57k · 111 announced
  8. + RomanceStrong odds101 devs · median $56k · 63 announced
  9. + SimulationStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  10. + JRPGStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  11. + Visual NovelStrong odds166 devs · median $54k · 146 announced
  12. + RPGStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced

All 63 pairs on the FMV page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Inscryption older $19.99 135,017 96% 4.1M $81M (exactly $80,969,695) Daniel Mullins Games
Not For Broadcast older $24.99 10,337 94% 310k $7.7M (exactly $7,749,649) NotGames
The Operator older $13.99 8,515 91% 255k $3.6M (exactly $3,573,746) Bureau 81
Obduction older $29.99 3,032 78% 91k $2.7M (exactly $2,727,890) Cyan, Inc.
Her Story older $9.99 8,367 89% 251k $2.5M (exactly $2,507,590) Sam Barlow
Breakout 13 older $9.99 6,899 87% 207k $2.1M (exactly $2,067,630) ALT Lab
Peeping Dorm Manager older $10.99 6,206 92% 186k $2.0M (exactly $2,046,118) HornyDoge
At Dead Of Night older $15.99 3,289 94% 99k $1.6M (exactly $1,577,733) Baggy Cat Ltd.
Stories Untold older $9.99 4,357 86% 131k $1.3M (exactly $1,305,793) Screen Burn
Home Safety Hotline older $14.99 2,763 90% 83k $1.2M (exactly $1,242,521) Night Signal Entertainment
Forbidden Solitaire $15.99 2,245 96% 67k $1.1M (exactly $1,076,926) Grey Alien Games, Night Signal Entertai… (Grey Alien Games, Night Signal Entertainment)
Dead Reset $14.99 750 88% 23k $337k (exactly $337,275) Dark Rift Horror, Wales Interactive
The Endless Abyss: A Busty Cop’s Corrupted Soul $12.99 683 71% 20k $266k (exactly $266,165) GiraffeLiam
Female Anchor Next Door $14.99 488 80% 15k $219k (exactly $219,454) 18cmSam, UVKen
Neyyah $24.99 229 83% 6.9k $172k (exactly $171,681) Defy Reality Entertainment
Heart of the Forest $12.99 202 70% 6.1k $79k (exactly $78,719) Trapped Predator
Éalú $9.99 254 92% 7.6k $76k (exactly $76,124) Beyond the Bark, Orr Games
Moka Love Relive♪ $13.99 175 93% 5.3k $73k (exactly $73,448) Riot-Cryo
我的同事不对劲 $8.99 215 89% 6.5k $58k (exactly $57,986) 11J Studio
Massage With Benefits $9.99 175 84% 5.3k $52k (exactly $52,448) pasunna

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.