Do I ship it?

GamesFMVFMV + Incremental

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Incremental FMV?

FMV + Incremental

Only 15 developers shipped an Incremental FMV in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, 恋爱吗?我家猫会后空翻, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 12 more are announced.

Verdict: strong odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $11k, ×23 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 7 in 10 cleared $1.4k. Revenue is up 135% on the market; 12 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×1.3 per shipper.

Deciding numbers: median 22.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 135% on the market, 12 announced, ×1.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FMV + Incremental
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $17k → $63k → $21k → $239 → $14k → $4.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FMV + Incremental: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $1.4k (exactly $1,438)
Median $11k (exactly $10,782)
Top 25% $73k (exactly $73,448)
Top 5% $452k (exactly $451,948)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 52
Announced 12
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 135% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

FMV
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
FMV, Incremental
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 2,778 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $11k, 1 in 4 over $73k, 1 in 20 over $450k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 7 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 12 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FMV with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SurvivalStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Post-apocalypticStrong odds8 devs · median $74k · 5 announced
  3. + StrategyStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  4. + Multiple EndingsStrong odds128 devs · median $65k · 93 announced
  5. + Immersive SimStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  6. + Choices MatterStrong odds108 devs · median $58k · 91 announced
  7. + Dating SimStrong odds148 devs · median $57k · 111 announced
  8. + RomanceStrong odds101 devs · median $56k · 63 announced
  9. + SimulationStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  10. + JRPGStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  11. + Visual NovelStrong odds166 devs · median $54k · 146 announced
  12. + RPGStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced

All 63 pairs on the FMV page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Peeping Dorm Manager older $10.99 6,206 92% 186k $2.0M (exactly $2,046,118) HornyDoge
恋爱吗?我家猫会后空翻 $9.99 1,508 96% 45k $452k (exactly $451,948) 光循花火工作室
Female Anchor Next Door $14.99 488 80% 15k $219k (exactly $219,454) 18cmSam, UVKen
Wishful Journey:Love Across Time older $9.99 426 88% 13k $128k (exactly $127,672) Hillhouse Holdings Limited
Giant Waifu Wash Simulator 💦 $14.99 194 65% 5.8k $87k (exactly $87,242) Lewd Star
天呐!找不到真爱就扑街! older $6.99 410 78% 12k $86k (exactly $85,977) 國王互娛King Interactive
NejicomiSimulator TMA02 older $22.99 114 76% 3.4k $79k (exactly $78,626) やぶから堂, たまぷろじぇくと
Moka Love Relive♪ $13.99 175 93% 5.3k $73k (exactly $73,448) Riot-Cryo
Fantasy Amusement Park older $5.99 348 85% 10k $63k (exactly $62,536) Cat Paw Game
Massage With Benefits $9.99 175 84% 5.3k $52k (exactly $52,448) pasunna
Koumi-Jima after Training with Konomi-chan live2d $10.99 43 55% 1.3k $14k (exactly $14,177) やぶから堂, 青水庵
My Royal Maid R $3.99 100 80% 3.0k $12k (exactly $11,970) WAWA
Light of Reversing Destiny $5.99 60 78% 1.8k $11k (exactly $10,782) HKBOI
Your Succubus $6.99 20 80% 600 $4.2k (exactly $4,194) Easyfun Studio
Local mom is a slut · EA $3.99 15 60% 450 $1.8k (exactly $1,796) A-GUI

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.