Do I ship it?

Games › FMV › FMV + Futuristic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Futuristic FMV?

FMV + Futuristic

Only 12 developers shipped a Futuristic FMV in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Tempest Rising, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 10 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.2k, ×15 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $11M, ×24779 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 10 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 15.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 10 announced, ×1.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FMV + Futuristic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $599 → $46k → $52k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FMV + Futuristic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $536 (exactly $536)
Median $7.2k (exactly $7,198)
Top 25% $52k (exactly $51,716)
Top 5% $12M (exactly $11,770,257)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 42
Announced 10
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

FMV
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Futuristic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
FMV
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 11,607 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $7.2k, 1 in 4 over $51k, 1 in 20 over $11M.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 10 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FMV with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SurvivalStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Post-apocalypticStrong odds8 devs · median $74k · 5 announced
  3. + StrategyStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  4. + Multiple EndingsStrong odds128 devs · median $65k · 93 announced
  5. + Immersive SimStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  6. + Choices MatterStrong odds108 devs · median $58k · 91 announced
  7. + Dating SimStrong odds148 devs · median $57k · 111 announced
  8. + RomanceStrong odds101 devs · median $56k · 63 announced
  9. + SimulationStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  10. + JRPGStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  11. + Visual NovelStrong odds166 devs · median $54k · 146 announced
  12. + RPGStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced

All 63 pairs on the FMV page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Tempest Rising 2025 · $12M Command & Conquer 3 Tiberium Wars™ 2009 · $1.8M Starship Troopers: Ultimate Bug War! 2026 · $1.0M Command & Conquer™ 4 Tiberian Twilight 2010 · $1.0M Command & Conquer: Red Alert 3 - Uprising 2009 · $955k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Tempest Rising $39.99 9,811 87% 294k $12M (exactly $11,770,257) Slipgate Ironworks™
Command & Conquer 3 Tiberium Wars™ older $6.96 8,777 89% 263k $1.8M (exactly $1,832,638) EA Los Angeles
Starship Troopers: Ultimate Bug War! $24.99 1,352 92% 41k $1.0M (exactly $1,013,594) Auroch Digital
Command & Conquer™ 4 Tiberian Twilight older $6.96 4,832 16% 145k $1.0M (exactly $1,008,922) EA Los Angeles
Command & Conquer: Red Alert 3 - Uprising older $6.96 4,572 84% 137k $955k (exactly $954,634) EA Los Angeles
反转21克 older $8.99 1,020 72% 31k $275k (exactly $275,094) 想象颗粒
The Solitaire Conspiracy older $11.99 742 89% 22k $267k (exactly $266,897) Bithell Games
Blade Runner: Enhanced Edition older $9.99 617 74% 19k $185k (exactly $184,915) Nightdive Studios, Westwood Studios
Star Trek™: Starfleet Academy older $19.99 129 81% 3.9k $77k (exactly $77,361) Interplay Entertainment Corp.
FUTA FIGHT & FUCK 🥊 $14.99 115 92% 3.5k $52k (exactly $51,716) BanzaiProject
Arcane Lust 18+ $9.99 155 68% 4.7k $46k (exactly $46,454) Carnality INC
LUST Company 👾 $9.99 155 65% 4.7k $46k (exactly $46,454) Taboo Tales 💘
Become Emperor! My Trillion Beauties Planet Empire $39.99 6 16% 180 $7.2k (exactly $7,198) 万亿美女星球工程设计研究院, Trillion Beauties Planet… (万亿美女星球工程设计研究院, Trillion Beauties Planet Engineering Design Institute)
2Synth $10.99 5 100% 150 $1.6k (exactly $1,648) Joel Gervasi
Digital Heartbeat：Unknown Lover $9.99 4 25% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) 咪咕互动娱乐有限公司
Mina · EA $5.95 3 0% 90 $536 (exactly $536) Anopia Games
US Visual Novel $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Us Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.