Do I ship it?

GamesFMVFMV + Female Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Female-Led FMV?

FMV + Female Protagonist

Of 75 developers who shipped a Female-Led FMV in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 102 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $27k, ×56 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×2620 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 102 games are announced against 44 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 56.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 102 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FMV + Female Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 75
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $39k → $18k → $88k → $56k → $56k → $148k → $7.2k (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FMV + Female Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 75
Bottom 30% $1.6k (exactly $1,648)
Median $27k (exactly $26,673)
Top 25% $128k (exactly $127,972)
Top 5% $1.2M (exactly $1,244,378)
Developers, 2 yr 75
Released games 156
Announced 102
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

FMV
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Female Protagonist
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
FMV; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Interactive Fiction, Simulation, Visual Novel
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, First-Person, Emotional
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 41,094 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.7k, median $27k, 1 in 4 over $120k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.7k. 4 in 10 of the 35 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 102 games are announced against 44 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FMV with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SurvivalStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Post-apocalypticStrong odds8 devs · median $74k · 5 announced
  3. + StrategyStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  4. + Multiple EndingsStrong odds128 devs · median $65k · 93 announced
  5. + Immersive SimStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  6. + Choices MatterStrong odds108 devs · median $58k · 91 announced
  7. + Dating SimStrong odds148 devs · median $57k · 111 announced
  8. + RomanceStrong odds101 devs · median $56k · 63 announced
  9. + SimulationStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  10. + JRPGStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  11. + Visual NovelStrong odds166 devs · median $54k · 146 announced
  12. + RPGStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced

All 63 pairs on the FMV page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Love Is All Around older $9.99 36,203 93% 1.1M $11M (exactly $10,850,039) intiny
Mirror 2: Project X · EA older $1.99 111,251 24% 3.3M $6.6M (exactly $6,641,685) KAGAMI Ⅱ WORKs
Road to Empress Ⅱ $18.00 7,773 80% 233k $4.2M (exactly $4,197,420) New One Studio
Five Hearts Under One Roof $19.99 5,881 91% 176k $3.5M (exactly $3,526,836) Storytaco
Road to Empress I $8.49 11,829 86% 355k $3.0M (exactly $3,012,846) New One Studio
Her Story older $9.99 8,367 89% 251k $2.5M (exactly $2,507,590) Sam Barlow
Peeping Dorm Manager older $10.99 6,206 92% 186k $2.0M (exactly $2,046,118) HornyDoge
Succubus Cafe older $29.99 2,260 89% 68k $2.0M (exactly $2,033,322) MIGI STUDIO
Knowledge, or know Lady older $6.99 8,501 95% 255k $1.8M (exactly $1,782,660) 蒸汽满满工作室
The Centennial Case : A Shijima Story older $49.99 1,033 79% 31k $1.5M (exactly $1,549,190) Square Enix
The Three Kingdoms: Rebirth $19.99 2,564 91% 77k $1.5M (exactly $1,537,631) 玛奇阿朵互娱科技, 山与海工作室
Five Hearts Under One Roof season2 $22.99 2,149 96% 64k $1.5M (exactly $1,482,165) Storytaco
Hello Love: 18 Again $19.99 2,075 92% 62k $1.2M (exactly $1,244,378) 念念而忘(Echofall Studio)
美女,请别影响我成仙 $10.99 3,140 93% 94k $1.0M (exactly $1,035,258) 蒸汽满满工作室
Conquer the world $12.99 1,996 92% 60k $778k (exactly $777,841) 互动之星
Love is All Around: Echoes of Yesterday $10.99 1,850 81% 56k $610k (exactly $609,945) intiny
我只是想让她们都幸福 $9.99 1,837 97% 55k $551k (exactly $550,549) 心宿影视

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.