Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + Fishing

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fishing Sandbox?

Sandbox + Fishing

Of 77 developers who shipped a Fishing Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 170 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.6k, ×15 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.0M, ×3311 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 170 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 15.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 170 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Fishing
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 77
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.9k → $55k → $16k → $15k → $29k → $4.2k → $3.6k (still earning) → $14k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Fishing: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 77
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,347)
Median $9.6k (exactly $9,590)
Top 25% $105k (exactly $105,345)
Top 5% $2.1M (exactly $2,079,097)
Developers, 2 yr 77
Released games 162
Announced 170
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Fishing
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox, Fishing; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Life Sim, Building
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, 3D, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 100,334 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.4k, median $9.6k, 1 in 4 over $100k, 1 in 20 over $2.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.4k. 5 in 10 of the 37 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 170 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stardew Valley older $14.99 894,201 98% 27M $402M (exactly $402,122,190) ConcernedApe
Disney Dreamlight Valley older $39.99 22,027 92% 661k $26M (exactly $26,425,792) Gameloft
Coral Island older $29.99 21,828 89% 655k $20M (exactly $19,638,652) Stairway Games
Dinkum $19.99 24,641 92% 739k $15M (exactly $14,777,208) James Bendon
Feed and Grow: Fish · EA older $14.99 20,750 78% 623k $9.3M (exactly $9,331,275) Old B1ood
WEBFISHING $4.99 57,353 97% 1.7M $8.6M (exactly $8,585,744) lamedeveloper
DYSMANTLE older $19.99 11,022 91% 331k $6.6M (exactly $6,609,893) 10tons Ltd
Ultimate Fishing Simulator® older $19.99 8,256 89% 248k $5.0M (exactly $4,951,123) Ultimate Games S.A., Bit Golem
Farm Together 2 $25.99 4,456 93% 134k $3.5M (exactly $3,474,343) Milkstone Studios
CryoFall older $19.99 4,905 78% 147k $2.9M (exactly $2,941,528) AtomicTorch Studio
Go-Go Town! $27.99 2,476 93% 74k $2.1M (exactly $2,079,097) Prideful Sloth
Mirthwood $24.99 2,242 69% 67k $1.7M (exactly $1,680,827) Bad Ridge Games
Grimshire · EA $14.99 3,243 97% 97k $1.5M (exactly $1,458,377) Acute Owl Studio
Salt 2: Shores of Gold $19.99 2,182 85% 65k $1.3M (exactly $1,308,545) Lavaboots Studios
Farmer's Dynasty 2 · EA $24.99 1,225 72% 37k $918k (exactly $918,382) UMEO Studios
Farlands $17.99 1,628 89% 49k $879k (exactly $878,632) JanduSoft, Eric Rodríguez
Snacko $24.99 888 95% 27k $666k (exactly $665,734) Bluecurse Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.